自然资源学报 ›› 2004, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4): 430-437.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2004.04.004

• 资源利用与保护 • 上一篇    下一篇

宁南山区水资源承载能力及移民规模研究

秦大庸, 裴源生, 于福亮, 陈一鸣   

  1. 中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京100044
  • 收稿日期:2003-12-25 修回日期:2004-03-25 出版日期:2004-08-25 发布日期:2004-08-25
  • 作者简介:秦大庸(1959~),河北唐山人,教授级高工,研究方向为水资源合理配置与规划。
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G1999043602);“十五”国家重大科技攻关计划项目(2001BA610A-02)。

Water resources carrying capacity and emigration of mountain areas of southern Ningxia

QIN Da-yong, PEI Yuan-sheng, YU Fu-liang, CHEN Yi-ming   

  1. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100044, China
  • Received:2003-12-25 Revised:2004-03-25 Online:2004-08-25 Published:2004-08-25

摘要: 通过对宁南山区水资源开发利用模式的剖析,建立了农业发展模式,提出当地水资源承载能力和合理的搬迁人口规模。讨论了干旱区水资源承载能力的理论和方法,以2000年作为基准年对宁南山区的人口、粮食需求进行了分析预测,提出了当地的农业发展模式和相应的农业生产能力,最后根据GDP和粮食生产能力,给出了宁南山区的水资源承载能力将从现状的230×104人提高到2020年的400×104人,以县为单元累计的行政合理移民规模为不到50×104人,可使生态环境得到不断恢复和有效保护。

关键词: 水资源, 承载能力, 生产能力, 干旱区, 移民规模

Abstract: Through analysis of the pattern of water resources development and utilization in the mountain areas of southern Ningxia,the agricultural development model was established and local water resources carrying capacity and emigrant scale was put forward.Firstly,this paper discussed the theory and calculation method of water resources carrying capacity in an arid zone.Then,regarding 2000 as a base year,the population growth and food demand in the mountain areas of southern Ningxia were predicted to recommend agricultural development pattern adapting to the local conditions and estimate the agricultural production capacity.Finally, according to GDP and food production capacity,it was concluded that water resources carrying capacity in mountain areas of southern Ningxia might be increased from 2 300 000 people in the base year to 4 000 000 people in the target year 2020,and regarding a county as a unit,500 000 emigrants or less in accu-mulative total might be reasonable.As a result,the ecosystem might be restored and the envir-onment effectively protected.

Key words: water resources, carrying capacity, production capacity, arid zone, emigrant