自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 2003, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 210-214.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2003.02.013

• “黄河流域水循环动力机制与模拟”专题研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

从油气资源状况论我国未来能源发展战略

周总瑛1, 唐跃刚2   

  1. 1. 中国矿业大学, 北京 100083;
    2. 中国石油化工股份有限公司石油勘探开发研究院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2002-09-19 修回日期:2002-11-19 出版日期:2003-04-25 发布日期:2003-04-25
  • 作者简介:周总瑛(1967～),男,福建莆田人,高级工程师,硕士,中国矿业大学(北京校区)在读博士, 主要从事油气资源评价、油气规划等工作.
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点科技攻关项目(99-110-07-02).

Discussion on future energy development strategy in China judged by oil & gas resources status

ZHOU Zong-ying1, TANG Yue-gang2   

  1. 1. China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. Exploration and Production Research Institute of SINOPEC, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2002-09-19 Revised:2002-11-19 Online:2003-04-25 Published:2003-04-25

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摘要： 我国油气可采资源量分别为140×108t和9.3×1012m3,但与世界平均水平相比,我国油气资源却相对贫乏。目前,我国石油资源勘探程度较高,储量、产量增长的潜力有限,石油在未来一次能源消费中的比例只能略有上升,保持在25%～26%;而天然气资源勘探程度却很低,正处在高速发展阶段。天然气在未来一次能源消费中的比例有望较快增长,预计从2000年的2.5%上升到2015年的9.4%;与之对应,煤炭消费比例会有所下降,但不会改变煤炭在一次能源消费中的首要地位。为此,根据我国油气资源、能源消费和能源需求变化等特点,对未来能源发展战略提出5条建议:节能降耗,提高能源利用率,实施可持续发展战略;大力发展洁净煤技术;依靠科技进步,加大油气勘探开发力度,优化能源结构;实施“走出去”战略,积极参与国际油气市场;积极开发新能源,实现能源供应多元化。

关键词: 油气资源, 能源消费, 油气需求, 消费比例, 发展战略

Abstract: It is estimated that the recovery resources of oil&gas are about 14billion tons and9.3trillion cubic meters respectively in China.But comparing with the world average,it is rela-tively poor in oil&gas resources in China.At present,the exploration maturity in oil resources is rather high,the increasing potential of oil reserves and output is limited in the future,the pro-portion of oil in the primary energy consumption can only increase slightly,keeping at25%～26%.But the maturity in gas resources exploration is quite low,it is in the high speed develop-ment stage,the proportion of gas in the primary energy consumption is expected to increase rather rapidly,hopefully from 2.5%in2000to9.4%in2015.Correspondingly,the proportion of coal in the energy mixture is to reduce a bit,but it still maintains its foremost status in the pri-mary energy consumption.Therefore,according to the features of oil&gas resources,energy consumption and energy requirement in China,the following six suggestions concerning energy development strategy are put forward:to economize energy and to reduce consumption,enhance efficiency of energy utilization,carry out sustainable development strategy;to develop vigorously the technology of clean coal;to make great effort in oil&gas exploration and production relying on science and technology progress,so as to optimize energy structure;to implement the"going abroad"strategy and to participate actively in the international oil&gas resources market;and to exploit new kind energy vigorously,and to realize diversification of energy supply.

Key words: oil&gas resources, energy consumption, energy requirement, consumption propor-tion, development strategy214

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  • TEO