自然资源学报 ›› 2002, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (5): 622-628.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2002.05.014

• 学术研讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

全国及区域性人均耕地阈值的探讨

陈百明, 周小萍   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2002-05-10 修回日期:2002-06-17 出版日期:2002-10-25 发布日期:2002-10-25
  • 作者简介:陈百明(1951~),男,浙江上虞人,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事土地资源调查、评价、开发 利用及生产潜力研究。E-mail:ehenbm@igsnrr.an.en
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院创新工程重点项目(KZCX2-310-05);国家自然科学基金重点课题(79930800)资助。

Analysis of the threshold area of national and regional per capita arable land in China

CHEN Bai-ming, ZHOU Xiao-ping   

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Beijing100101,China
  • Received:2002-05-10 Revised:2002-06-17 Online:2002-10-25 Published:2002-10-25

摘要: 论文首先指出并不存在联合国粮农组织提出的人均耕地面积阈值;继而认为人均耕地面积阈值具有鲜明的时间和空间特征,需要有明确的前提条件。为此按1995年的耕地实际生产力(在耕地面积中扣除菜地和经济作物用地面积),以人均400kg、450kg、500kg粮食需求量的生活标准,提出就全国平均而言,人均耕地面积不应小于0.092hm2、0.104hm2、0.115hm2(可以看作当前的人均耕地面积阈值)。根据2010、2030、2050年我国的预期耕地面积以及可能达到的生产能力,按人均400kg、450kg、500kg粮食需求量的生活标准,就全国平均而言,2010年人均耕地面积不应小于0.059hm2、0.067hm2、0.074hm2(可以看作近期的人均耕地面积阈值);2030年人均耕地面积不应小于0.052hm2、0.058hm2、0.064hm2(可以作为中期的人均耕地面积阈值);2050年人均耕地面积不应小于0.046hm2、0.052hm2、0.058hm2(可以作为远期的人均耕地面积阈值)。

关键词: 人均耕地, 指标, 阈值, 全国, 区域性

Abstract: This paper firstly points out that the threshold area of per capita arable land in China identified by FAO does not exist in fact;then advances that the threshold area of per capita arable land,which needs specific premise,has its distinct spatio-temporal characteristics.There-fore,according to the actual productivity of1995in China,the corresponding threshold areas of per capita arable land under different food demanding level in China are obtained:0.092ha for400kg per capita,0.104ha450kg per capita,and0.115ha500kg per capita(the current thresh-old area of per capita arable land in china).And based on the forecasted arable land area and productivity,threshold area of per capita arable land in2010,2030and2050are also calculat-ed:0.059ha,0.067ha,0.074ha in2010(the threshold area of the near future per capita arable land in China);0.052ha,0.058ha,0.064ha in2030(the threshold area of the medium-term per capita arable land in China);0.046ha,0.052ha,0.058ha in2050(the threshold area of long-term per capita arable land in China).

Key words: per capita arable land, indicators, threshold area, China, regional