自然资源学报 ›› 2002, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 327-332.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2002.03.011

• “中国资源安全学术研讨会”专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国西部地区水资源供需平衡预测

汤奇成1, 张捷斌2, 程维明1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011
  • 收稿日期:2001-11-17 修回日期:2002-01-26 出版日期:2002-06-25 发布日期:2002-06-25
  • 作者简介:汤奇成(1934~),男,研究员,主要从事水文水资源的研究工作。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(79870088)资助。

Prediction to water supply-demand balance for West China

TANG Qi-cheng1, ZHANG Jie-bin2, CHENG Wei-ming1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research,CAS,Beijing100101,China;
    2. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,CAS,Urumqi 830000,China
  • Received:2001-11-17 Revised:2002-01-26 Online:2002-06-25 Published:2002-06-25

摘要: 在我国西部1980年和1990年两次水资源供需平衡关系的基础上,对我国西部地区水资源的供需平衡分3个时段进行预测,借助可供水量、需水量、缺水量和缺水率的变化,系统分析了西部地区水资源供需关系变化的空间差异及其原因。预测时段分为对2010年的预测及对2030年和2050年的展望,这些预测和展望可为我国西部大开发战略的实施提供基础性依据。

关键词: 供需平衡, 水资源, 西部大开发

Abstract: Based on balanced relationship of supply and demand of water resources in1980and1990in West China,this paper balanceablly predicts supply and demand of water resources in3periods.By comparing the difference of water supply,demand,shortage and shortage ratio in1980and1990in West China,it systematically analyzes spatial change s in relationship of water supply and demand as well as their cause s.Calculated terms are divided into prediction period of2010,and expectation periods of2030and2050.This research can provide fundamental basis for the implementation of development strategies of the West.

Key words: water resource, the compaign of developing the West, balanceable supply and de-mand