自然资源学报 ›› 2002, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (1): 117-122.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2002.01.017

• 学术研讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

脆弱生态区评价的理论与方法

冉圣宏1, 金建君2, 薛纪渝3   

  1. 1. 清华大学环境科学与工程系,北京100084;
    2. 华东师范大学河口海岸国家重点实验室,上海200062;
    3. 北京师范大学环境科学研究所,北京100875
  • 收稿日期:2001-05-30 修回日期:2001-09-02 出版日期:2002-02-25 发布日期:2002-02-25
  • 作者简介:冉圣宏(1969~),男,湖北松滋人,助理研究员,博士,主要研究领域为环境规划与管理、脆弱生态环境的演变以及环境系统的不确定性分析等。E-mail: ransh@tsintghua.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    “九五”国家重点科技攻关项目(96-920-13-01)。

Assessment of vulnerable ecological regions:Theory and method ology

RAN Sheng-hong1, JIN Jian-jun2, XUE Ji-yu3   

  1. 1. Department of Environment Science and Environment Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing100084,China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2001-05-30 Revised:2001-09-02 Online:2002-02-25 Published:2002-02-25

摘要: 由于脆弱生态区的脆弱性不仅表现为其内部结构的不稳定,而且还表现在它对外界干扰反应的敏感上,脆弱生态区的现状、发展趋势及其稳定性都是其脆弱性固有属性的表现形式,因此,脆弱生态区的评价也就应该包括脆弱生态区的现状评价、趋势评价和稳定性评价等。论文在对脆弱生态区重新界定的基础上,以模糊评价理论对脆弱生态区的现状、以灰色预测和趋势函数法对脆弱生态区的发展趋势、以非线性理论对脆弱生态区的稳定性进行评价。

关键词: 脆弱生态区, 现状评价, 趋势评价, 稳定性评价, 综合评价

Abstract: The interior structure of vulnerable ecological regions is instable and these regions are hypersensitive to the exterior disturbances.Actually,their development trends and stability are the inherent forms of vulnerable ecological regions' basic properties.Therefore,the assessment of vulnerable ecological regions should include three parts:assessment of status quo,assessment of development trend and assessment of stability.Base d on new concept of vulnerable ecological re-gions,this paper assesses the status quo by fuzzy theory and predicts its develop ment trend by grey theory.Non-linear theories are applied to assess stabilities of vulnerable eco logical regions for the first time and the effect is very well.

Key words: vulnerable ecological region, assessment of status quo, assessment of development trend, assessment of stability, integrated assessment.