自然资源学报 ›› 2001, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (3): 221-226.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2001.03.005

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

风险分析理论及方法在粮食生产中的应用初探

邓国1, 王昂生1, 李世奎2, 周玉淑1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029;
    2. 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2000-09-04 修回日期:2000-12-15 出版日期:2001-06-25 发布日期:2001-06-25
  • 作者简介:邓国(1971-),男,河北人,博士,从事农业气候资源区划和中小尺度灾害性天气模拟和分析研究 工作。
  • 基金资助:

    农业部“中国农业灾害风险评价研究”课题(94-6Y-1)

Risk theory and method and its initial application in grain yield

DENG Guo1, WANG Ang sheng1, LI Shi kui2, ZHOU Yu shu1   

  1. 1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing 100029, China;
    2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2000-09-04 Revised:2000-12-15 Online:2001-06-25 Published:2001-06-25

摘要: 风险分析是通过对不确定事件的识别、衡量和处理 ,以最小的成本将各种不确定因素引起的损失减少到最低的科学管理办法。论文以风险理论为指导 ,初步探讨了粮食生产中的风险问题 ,并从粮食产量序列入手采用解析概率密度曲线积分的方法 ,着重研究某一粮食生产单元粮食产量序列的波动情况 ,定量地反映该地区粮食生产风险水平的高低状况 ,为发展生产、防灾减灾提供参考。

关键词: 风险分析, 相对气象产量, 概率

Abstract: Risk analysis theory mainly refers to use scientific methods to reduce losses resulting from all kinds of uncertainties to the minimum through differentiation, estimation and disposal. Based on the theory, this article discusses the risk problems in grain yield. Given a grain yield sequence, firstly we decompose it into two main parts according to different factors that affect yield. Secondly we translate the two parts into a ratio sequence, through which we could get rid of the influence of dimension as well as productivity, and the sequence reflects the information of fluctuation of grain yield during recent years. In addition, we form a function to simulate the rate sequence and subsequently calculate the probability of a cerain risk level of the sequence using the method of integral. This kind of information conduces to disaster management as well as formulation of proper policies in disaster reduction.

Key words: grain yield, relative meteorological yield, risk probability

中图分类号: 

  • X820.4