自然资源学报 ›› 1999, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 103-108.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1999.02.002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

华北降水资源的变化及其与厄尔尼诺的关系

王群英1, 龚道溢2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 北京大学地球物理系, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:1998-05-15 修回日期:1998-07-30 出版日期:1999-06-25 发布日期:1999-06-25
  • 作者简介:王群英,女,1970年9月生,编辑。1995年于北京师范大学资源与环境科学系获硕士学位,现在《地理学 报》编辑部工作。

VARIATION OF RAINFALL OVER NORTH CHINA AND ITS POSSIBLE CONNECTION TO El NIO

WANG Qun ying1, GONG Dao yi2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geography, CAS, Beijing 100101;
    2. Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Received:1998-05-15 Revised:1998-07-30 Online:1999-06-25 Published:1999-06-25

摘要: 对华北地区1951年以来的降水测站记录进行了趋势分析、相关分析和小波分析。发现47年来,华北夏季和秋季降水都有明显的减少趋势。夏季和年总降水在1964年前后发生了一次明显的变化,以后降水显著减少。1985年左右,秋季降水也发生了一次显著减少的变化。夏季华北降水变化的周期主要集中于2~4年、8年左右和20年左右。秋季最突出的周期是2~4年和8年左右。厄尔尼诺对华北降水的变化有重要影响,发生厄尔尼诺时,华北春季降水偏多,夏季和秋季降水显著偏少。冬季关系不显著。发生厄尔尼诺的次年春季,华北降水偏多。

关键词: 华北地区, 降水, 厄尔尼诺

Abstract: Rainfall resource is very important to social economic system, especi ally to North China which is now facing serious challenge of water shortage. Bas ed on the observational records covering the period from 1951 to present, the ch aracteristics of precipitation changing over North China and its possible connec tion to El Nio were studied using tendency analysis, correlation analysis and wavelet analysis. Results showed that the rainfall in North China had a down te ndency in summer and autumn at a rate of-9.6mm/10a and -4.5mm/10a respectively. And annual precipitation was decreasin g at the rate of -12.9mm/10a. In decadal time scale, abrupt changes were observ ed in the mid 1960s for summer and annual precipitation.Precipitation was signi ficantly less for the decade after about 1985 in contrast to the decade before. The time series showed perio dicities at 2-4, 8, 20 years for summer rainfall and at 2-4, 8 years for autum n rainfall. El Nio had prominent impacts on precipitation of North China,under El Nio condition the rainfall will decrease significantly in summer and autum n, and increase in spring.

Key words: North China, rainfall, El Nio

中图分类号: 

  • P426.61