自然资源学报 ›› 1997, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (3): 197-203.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1997.03.001

• 论文 •    下一篇

最近15年来中国气候变化、农业自然灾害与粮食生产的初步研究

史培军, 王静爱, 谢云, 王平, 周武光   

  1. 国家教委环境演变与自然灾害开放研究实验室, 北京师范大学资源科学研究所, 北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:1996-11-12 修回日期:1997-02-06 出版日期:1997-09-25 发布日期:1997-09-25
  • 作者简介:史培军,男,1959年3月生,博士,教授,中国自然资源学会常务理事。近年主要开展我国北方环境演变与 自然灾害的综合研究,发表环境演变与自然灾害文章80多篇,出版专著6本,先后获得省部级奖励9次。于 1995~1996年在美国伯克莱加州大学自然资源学院作访问教授。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金委员会资助

A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE CLIMATIC CHANGE, NATURAL DISASTERS OF AGRICULTURE AND GRAIN YIELD IN CHINADURING THE PAST 15 YEARS

Shi Peijun, Wang Jingai Xie Yun, Wang Ping, Zhou Wuguang   

  1. The Open Research Lab. of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of the State Education Commission, and the Institute of Resource Science of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875
  • Received:1996-11-12 Revised:1997-02-06 Online:1997-09-25 Published:1997-09-25

摘要: 本文分析了最近15a来中国气候变化在最近50a来的比较特征,并着重分析与讨论了这一期间气候变化、农业自然灾害与粮食生产的关系。结果表明:降水变化是影响中国粮食生产变化的主要原因,温度变化对粮食生产的影响主要表现在高纬度地区和高海拔地区;因气候变化影响粮食产量的变化幅度一般为3%~5%,个别年份可达10%左右;因农业自然灾害造成的粮食减产幅度一般在5%~10%,个别可达10%左右。

关键词: 中国, 气候变化, 农业自然灾害, 粮食生产

Abstract: his paper analyses the main features of the climatic change, natural disasters of agriculture and grain yield in China during the past 15 years in comparison with the situation of the last 50 years. The conclusions are as follows: (a) During the last 15 years, the average temperature increased by 0.1~0.9℃ in China. The temperature increase was higher in the north than in the south. The average increase in the north was 0.5~o.9℃ .The precipitation increased or decreased by 3%~10%. The regions with precipitation increase were the northern part of Northeast China, Xinjiang, East China, the northern part of Central China and Sichuan and Guangxi Provinces. In general, the increase was between 1% and 5%. (b) During the last 15 years, flood, water  logging and drought were the main natural hazards of agriculture in China. The drought stricken areas and flooded areas covered 17.6% and 8.1% of the sowing area in the corresponding periods respectively. The proportion of the drought stricken areas of each province was about 5%~19%. The proportion of flooded areas of each province was about 2%~10%. (c) The grain yield change due to the climatic change has obvious regional laws. The law shows that in the whole country the rich harvest year and the poor harvest year occur alternately and that the east and the west or the south and the north supplement each other in grain yield. In the past, we pointed out the law that “the south will have flood when the north has drought ”or “the south will have drought when the north has flood”. Actually it is not very exact. (d) During the last 15 years, the range of the grain yield decrease due to natural hazards occupied about 15% of the grain yield in the same period.The loss induced by meteorological disasters occupied about 40%. That was 6% of the grain yield in the same period. The continuous uptrend of the grain yield decrease proportion in the main grain production regions is one of the major reasons for the slow increase in grain yield in China since 1984.

Key words: hina, climatic change, natural disasters of agriculture, grain yield