自然资源学报 ›› 1996, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (3): 197-202.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1996.03.001

• 论文 •    下一篇

中国粮食生产发展预测及其保证程度分析

陈锡康1, 郭菊娥2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院系统科学研究所;
    2. 陕西财经学院
  • 出版日期:1996-09-25 发布日期:1996-09-25
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金

FORECAST OF CHINA'S GRAIN PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT AND ITS GUARANTEE DEGREE ANALYSIS

Chen Xikang1, Guo Ju-e2   

  1. 1. Institute of System Science, Chinese Academy of Science;
    2. Shanxi Institute of Finance and Economics
  • Online:1996-09-25 Published:1996-09-25

摘要: 本文讨论了中国粮食生产发展面临的4种严峻困难与挑战。按照中国基本国情及世界市场粮食资源状况,中国必须走粮食基本自给的道路。利用投入占用产出技术及系统科学方法,对2030年中国的粮食产量、粮食进口量及自给率进行了预测。

关键词: 粮食产量预测, 投入占用产出技术, 系统科学方法

Abstract: This paper discusses four stern difficulties and challenges faced by the development of grain production in China. According to the basic national conditions of China and the amount of grain resource in the world market, China must meet the grain demands mainly by her own domestic production. Using the input-occupancy-output techniques and system science methods, this paper makes a forecast about China's grain output, grain import and self-support rate in the year 2030.

Key words: grain output forecast, input-occupancy-output techniques, system science methods