关键词: 年轮场, 地表水资源, 重建, 长期变化特征, 预测

Abstract: In this paper,we reconstruct the surface water resource of North Xinjiang in 250 years from the tree-ring field in this region,study the relationships among climate,surface water resource and tree-ring,analyze the long-term variation features and predict the variation trend in the futute.The main conclusions obtained are as follows:(a).Reconstructing the surface water resource from the tree-ring field in North Xinjiang has clear physiological significance and the results are believable;(b).The departure variation features of the sequence of the surface water resource of North Xinjiang in 250 years are as follows:the annual surface water is mainly less than its mean before 1840,it is mainly more than its mean from 1841 to 1974 and it is also mainly less than its mean after 1974:(c).There is an undulate increase trend in the surface water resource during 1760-1905 and there is a weaker decrease trend from 1905 to 1994:(d).The maximum departure percentage amplitude of the surface water resource in 250 years is from-29% to +41%;(e).The lengths of the main variation periods of the surface water resource are 2,35,30,14,and 52 years respectively;(f).There is a better correlation between the surface water resource of North Xinjiang and the relative number of sunspot in the periods of 22,11,6 and 2～3 years.

Key words: tree-ring field, surface water resource of North Xinjiang, reconstruction, long-term variation features