关键词: 森林资源, 木材供需平衡, 系统分析, 仿真

Abstract: On the basis of a systematic analysis of the equilibrium state of the supply and demand of the forest resource arid timber in Shandong Province, a equilibrium model of the supply and demand of the forest resource and timber of the province is developed by using the method of system dynamics. The best way for resolving the contradiction about the supply and demand of timber is pointed out through the policy simulation and result analysis of different schemes. This will provide valuable foundations for drawing up the forestry development policies.

Key words: forest resource, supply and demand, equilibrium of timber, systematic analysis, simulation