自然资源学报

自然资源学报 ›› 1994, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (2): 164-175.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1994.02.009

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

多目标、多水源和多用户水资源系统管理的专家系统决策模型

路京选   

  1. 中国科学院国家计划委员会自然资源综合考察委员会
  • 出版日期:1994-06-25 发布日期:1994-06-25

DECISION-MAKING MODEL USING EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR WATER RESOURCES SYSTEM MANAGEMENT WITH MULTI-OBJECTS, MULTI-SOURCES AND MULTI-USERS

Lu Jingxuan   

  1. Commission for Lntegrated swvey of Natusat Resources ,Chinese Academy of Science
  • Online:1994-06-25 Published:1994-06-25

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14 | 1

摘要： 几乎所有的水资源系统都是以多目标、多水源和多用户等为特征，因此其开发与管理过程中的各种决策也都必须坚持这些原则。本文利用现代专家系统技术建立了一种水资源系统管理的专家系统决策模型。该水资源系统包含一个地面水库供水系统、两个城镇市政供水系统、３个农区灌溉系统以及一个沼泽生态系统。它最早源于英国７０年代初所提出的灌溉系统对策仿真的设想，后经国外其他学者的不断完善，最后形成一种接近于现实的简单而综合的水资源系统管理原型，并以对策仿真的形式建立了其ＬＯＴＵＳ模拟模型。该对策仿真模拟模型中的对策者是地面水源管理者（ＷＡＭ）、市政供水管理者（ＰＷＳＭ）以及三组不同农户（ＦＡＲＭＥＲＳ）。为了使该系统更趋完善且更符合我国国情，本文又另外引入了一个称之为系统总管的对策者（ＭＡＮＡＧＥＲ）。他主要负责该系统的全面运行，解决系统中各对策者之间的矛盾冲突，监控全系统的环境质量，尽可能使整个系统获得最佳的社会、经济与环境效益。这种对策仿真模拟模型的主要目的是培养参加对策仿真的各位对策者，或者说水资源系统中的有关各方，即不同角色，更加熟悉一般水资源系统运行与管理过程中的各个方面。本文利用应用于微机的ＶＰ－专家系统外壳建立了这种对策仿

关键词: 水资源系统管理, 对策仿真, 对策者, 专家系统, 知识库

Abstract: Almost all modern water resources systems are featured as multi-objects, multi-sources and multi-users ,which should be kept in mind during decision-making process of their development and management. A decision-making model using expert systems technology for Water Resources systems management was developed in this paper. The phototype of the Water resources system used in this work is composed of a surface reservoir water supply system, a public water supply system ,three different irrigation areas and a swamp ecological area. It originally came from the idea of irrigation games and role play proposed by some British researchers in the early 70's and improved by other foreigners later on , Then it was used as the prototype of a simple but realistic and integreted water resources system management and a role play Lotus simulation model was developed based on it. The players in the role play model are Water Authority Manager(WAM), Public Water Supply Manager (PWSM) and three different groups of Farmers. Another player, System Manager, was introduced to the system in this work to make it perfect and consistent with cases in our country. This player is responsible for the overall operation,settling down conflicts among different players, controlling the system environmental quality,and making overall socialeconomic as well as environmental benefits maximal. The main objectives of the role play simulation model are focused on training different players in the game,or different persons involved in different roles within the system to become farmiliar with and to gain inside into all possible aspects concerning operation and maintenance of a typical water resources system. A decision-making model using the PC-based VP-Expert Shell was developed to extend the functions and to improve the performance of all the players on their decision-making process. undoubtedly,it is a very useful approach for modern water resources system management.

Key words: water resources system management, role play, players, expert system, knowledge bases