自然资源学报 ›› 1993, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (2): 166-175.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1993.02.009

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

现代气候变化对中国热量资源的影响

刘允芬   

  1. 中国科学院国家计划委员会自然资源综合考察委员会 北京 100101
  • 出版日期:1993-06-25 发布日期:1993-06-25

THE IMPACT OF THE CONTEMPORARY CLIMATIC CHANGE ON CHINA'S HEAT RESOURCE

Liu Yunfen   

  1. Commission for Integrated Survey of Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Online:1993-06-25 Published:1993-06-25

摘要: 在全球气候变化中,我国的气候变化将更复杂,对农业气候资源和农业生产的影响也将更为明显。将农业气候资源作为综合气候信息系统来评估气候变化对农业的影响,并探讨相应对策是十分必要的。本文研究气候变化对中国热量资源的影响,对气候条件与农业气候热量资源进行相关分析,建立回归方程及用蒙特卡罗法进行模拟计算,分析了气候变化可能引起的热量资源变化,评价了这一变化对农业的影响并提出相应对策。

关键词: 气候变化, 农业气候资源, 热量资源, 相关分析, 蒙特卡罗法

Abstract: In the global climatic change, China's climatic change will be more complicated and its impact on the agricultural climatic resources and agricultural production will also be more obvious. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary taking the agricultural climatic resources as a comprehensive climatic information system to evaluate he impact of the climatic change on agriculture and explore the correspondent ways to deal with it. This article studies the impact of climatic change on China's heat resource, and makes a co relation analysis of the climatic conditions and the agricultural climatic heat resource in order to establish a regression equation and make simulant computation with the Monte Carlo Method. In addition, it analyses the change of the heat resource that possible results from climatic change, evaluates its impact on agriculture, and finally sets forth the correspondent countermeasu es.

Key words: climatic change, agricultur 1 climatic resources, heat resource, correlation analysis, the Monte Carlo method