自然资源学报 ›› 1989, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (2): 123-135.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1989.02.004

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

宁夏人口、粮食与水土资源利用

苏人琼, 倪建华   

  1. 中国科学院、国家计划委员会自然资源综合考察委员会
  • 出版日期:1989-06-25 发布日期:1989-06-25

POPULATION, FOOD AND THE UTILIZATION OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES OF NINGXIA HUI AUTONOMOUS REGION

Su Renqiong, Ni Jianhua   

  1. Commission for Integrated Survey of Natural Resources
  • Online:1989-06-25 Published:1989-06-25

摘要: 人口、粮食与水土资源利用是宁夏回族自治区国民经济发展中的重要问题。文中分析了宁夏人口、粮食与水土资源利用现状,应用灰色系统理论及回归分析,建立人口、粮食预测模型,对2000年宁夏的人口、粮食进行了预测。分析2000年水土资源不同开发利用条件下粮食供需平衡情况后指出,充分合理利用黄河水资源,扩大灌溉面积,配合先进的农业技术,宁夏粮食不仅能自给,而且还能提供一定数量的商品粮。最后提出了解决粮食问题,防止生态环境恶化的主要途径。

关键词: 人口, 粮食, 水土资源, 灰色系统, 回归分析, 供需平衡

Abstract: Population, food and the utilization of water and land resources are important problems in the economic development of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. This paper analyses the present situation of these problems and by applying the Grey System Theory and regressive analysis, bulids a forecasting model of population and food. According to the model, a prediction of the population and food of the region in 2000 has been made. After making a balance analysis between supply and demand of food under Various conditions of the water and land resources in 2000, it points out that the region'sfood production would be able not only to be-self-sufficient but also to provide a certain amount of marketable grain, if we fully utilize the water resource of the Yellow River, enlargel the irrigated land areas, and adopt new farming technigues. At the end of the paper, the main ways to solve the problems of food and to prevent the deterioration of ecosystem and environment have been suggested.

Key words: population, food, the land and water resources, grey system theory, regressive analysis, balance between supply and demand