自然资源学报 ›› 1988, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (3): 250-261.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1988.03.005

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

海河平原农业供水的决策分析模型

刘昌明   

  1. 中国科学院、国家计划委员会地理研究所
  • 出版日期:1988-09-25 发布日期:1988-09-25

AN ANALYTICAL MODEL OF DECISION MAKING ON AGRICULTURAL WATER SUPPLY FOR THE HAIHE PLAIN

Liu Changming   

  1. Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Online:1988-09-25 Published:1988-09-25

摘要: 本文根据海河平原水源不足的问题,采用系统分析的方法,探讨了农业供水的对策。提出的决策分析模型可望适用于不同大小的区域。通过实际资料的分析得出实行节流、管理与开源的具体方案及经济效益。分析成果表明推行节水灌溉技术与管理措施是完全可行的。在建立节流系统(包括管带与滴灌及调整耕作制度、作物布局)和加强水管理的基础上,实行开源引江、引黄,可大大缩减调水规模,降低开源工程投资,缓和工农与城乡供水的矛盾。

关键词: 决策分析模型, 节流, 水管理, 调水, 供水效益

Abstract: The present paper discusses agricultural water supply in the plain downstream of the Ha-ihe Basin, where water is unsatisfied with water demand. On the basis of water saving policy concerned with water development and management, the concept of an analytical model for decision making is suggested in this paper. The model can be used for either large area or small area. In this paper a large plain area of the Haihe Basin is taken as a case study.The mathematical model is obtained as follows: Where: Z = total profit (value of the objective function);B=benefits of water use;C = costs of water supply; = management level at e;I = water duty; A = irrigation acreage to be developed by using different flooding technigues, subscript of i;n = farming structure (cropping system);m = source of water (water supply combination);P = reliability of water supply. In this study, n and m are constants.There are many constraints involved in the model such as water amount, irrigation acreage, irrigation technique etc.The results show that water saving would be of the most important alternative to solve the problem of water shortage in the Haihe Plain. The net benefit of water supply through water saving techniques can be positive in a dry year. Enhancing the irrigation management should be emphasized on water saving. On the basis of water saving agricultural water resources can be supplemented through water diversion from the Changjiang (Yangtze River) to the Haihe Plain with a reasonable scale. Before the implementation of the water diversion a countermeasure of adjusting the cropping system of the Haihe Plain to mitigate water shortage is likely to be advisable.

Key words: analytical model of decision making, water saving, water management, water diversion, profit of water supply