基于格点数据的中国1961—2016年≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温时空演变

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李帅, 张勃, 马彬, 候启, 何航. 基于格点数据的中国1961—2016年≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温时空演变[J].自然资源学报, 2020,35(5): 1216-1227
LI Shuai, ZHANG Bo, MA Bin, HOU Qi, HE Hang. Spatiotemporal evolution of effective accumulated temperatures of ≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ based on grid data in China from 1961 to 2016[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020,35(5): 1216-1227 复制到剪切板

DOI:10.31497/zrzyxb.20200516

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基于格点数据的中国1961—2016年≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温时空演变

李帅, 张勃, 马彬, 候启, 何航

西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州 730070

通讯作者:张勃（1963- ）,男,甘肃庆阳人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为区域环境与资源开发。E-mail: zhangbo@nwnu.edu.cn

作者简介:李帅（1994- ）,男,江苏徐州人,硕士,研究方向为区域环境与资源开发。E-mail: nwnulishuai@163.com

收稿日期:2019-03-04 网络出版日期:2020-05-28

基金:国家自然科学基金项目（41561024）

摘要

为了解气候变暖对农作物种植区域的影响,基于5日滑动平均、累积距平、MK检验、多元回归插值方法,选用格点数据对中国农业热量资源进行分析。结果表明：（1）≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温整体呈上升趋势,且≥5 ℃整体升幅更为显著,两者升幅均表现为南方地区最大,北方次之,青藏高原最小,秦巴山区积温呈现下降现象。（2）在空间分布上,≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温整体表现出自南向北随纬度更替变化的地带性分布和自东向西随海拔变化的阶梯状分布,东、中部地区受纬度影响明显,西部地区受海拔影响强于纬度。适宜喜凉作物种植的区域远大于喜温作物的适宜种植面积。（3）≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温均在1997年发生突变,突变后≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃各积温带界线呈现向北、向高海拔移动的趋势,积温整体升高。南方地区≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃积温增幅整体大于北方,青藏高原及高山山区增幅最小,秦岭地区积温增幅为负。（4）≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃有效积温初始日（结束日）整体呈提前（推迟）现象,且多数格点提前（推迟）日数在0~10 d以内,持续时间在突变后整体延长。青藏高原≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃积温初始日（结束日）提前（推迟）天数最大。

关键词: 有效积温; 热量资源; 多元回归插值; 突变; 中国

Spatiotemporal evolution of effective accumulated temperatures of ≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ based on grid data in China from 1961 to 2016

LI Shuai, ZHANG Bo, MA Bin, HOU Qi, HE Hang

College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Abstract

In order to figure out the impact of climate warming on crop planting areas, this paper used grid data to analyze agricultural heat resources in China based on methods of Sliding Mean Temperature of Five Days, accumulated anomaly, Manner-Kendall test and multiple regression interpolation. The results showed that: (1) The effective accumulative temperatures (≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃) show an overall upward trend, and the accumulative temperature of ≥5 ℃ is more remarkable. The southern region has the highest inclination rate, followed by the northern region, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the smallest, while the cumulative temperatures of the Qinling-Daba mountains show a decreasing trend. (2) The effective accumulated temperatures (≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃) present a similar spatial distribution, namely, the accumulated temperature varied with latitude from south to north and varied with altitude from east to west. The eastern and central regions of China are obviously affected by latitude, while the western region is affected more by altitude than latitude. The area suitable for planting chimonophilous crop is larger than that suitable for thermophilic crop. (3) The effective accumulated temperatures of both ≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ mutated in 1997, and both of their boundaries show a tendency toward northward and high altitude. The cumulative temperature increment in the south is larger than that in the north. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and mountain areas with high altitude have the smallest increase, while cumulative temperature increment is negative in the Qinling Mountains. (4) The initial days (closing day) of the effective accumulated temperature (≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃) presented an overall phenomenon of advance (delay), and the number of advance (delay) days is mostly within 0-10 days. Both of their durations increased overall after mutation. The number of initial days (closing day) in advance (delay) is the largest in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Keyword: effective accumulative temperature; heat resources; multiple regression interpolation; abrupt change; China

文章图片

IPCC第五次评估报告^[1]指出, 1880— 2012年全球地表平均温度升高约0.85 ℃; 1983— 2012年是过去1400年来最热的30年; 20世纪中叶以来, 极端事件的强度和频率发生明显变化。中国幅员辽阔, 农业资源区域差异巨大, 气候变暖对不同区域产生的影响各自相异^{[2, 3, 4, 5]}。气候变暖使作物物候做出较大的改变^{[6, 7, 8, 9]}, 认知气候变化的具体过程及产生的影响是农业发展应对增温变暖的关键。

国内学者应用活动积温作为表征热量的指标对中国热量资源做了众多研究。基于全国时空尺度的≥ 0 ℃、≥ 10 ℃活动积温表明中国近50年≥ 10 ℃积温总体呈上升趋势, 在20世纪90年代最为突出^[10]; ≥ 0 ℃积温和≥ 10 ℃积温增加趋势大体一致, 约为70 ℃· d/10 a, 各起始时间提前、持续时间增加^[11]; 作物种植北界北移^[12]。另有学者基于小区域尺度对东北地区^[13]、西北地区^[14]、黄土高原^{[15, 16]}、新疆地区^[17]及汉中盆地^[18]等活动积温展开研究, 研究内容包括农业气候资源变化情况与气候变化对各种作物物候及种植区域的影响等。以上研究是都基于活动积温进行的, 活动积温的稳定性较差, 把部分无效温度纳入计算将会掩盖热量资源的真实变化, 而有效积温可以避免此不足。当前基于有效积温的研究仅限于小区域^{[19, 20, 21]}, 在全球变暖背景下对全国喜凉作物、喜温作物有效积温的变化情况与分布特征未有学者进行研究。考虑农作物生命活动必须在一定温度范围内才能进行, 5 ℃是喜凉作物开始生长的下限温度, 10 ℃是喜温作物开始播种与生长的下限温度^[22], 因此选用5 ℃、10 ℃作为下限温度分别对全国喜凉、喜温作物有效积温研究。

本文基于1961— 2016年气温格点数据, 采用5日滑动平均, Manner-Kendall趋势/突变检验（MK检验）、累积距平及多元回归插值法对中国5 ℃、10 ℃有效积温进行研究, 确定并分析5 ℃、10 ℃有效积温时空格局分布及演变, 旨在全面了解中国农作物热量资源变化规律, 为不同区域选择适宜的喜温、喜凉农作物提供科学依据。

1 研究方法与数据来源

1.1 数据来源

气象数据选用中国气象数据共享网（http://cdc.nmic.cn/）1961— 2016年逐日格点温度, 使用SNHT（Standard Normal Homogeneity Test）对温度序列进行非均一性检验, 所有序列均通过一致性检验; DEM数据来源于地理空间数据云（http://www.gscloud.cn/）。

1.2 研究方法

1.2.1 有效积温

使用5日滑动平均^[23]对数据处理, 计算≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温值。公式如下：

$A = \overset{n}{\sum_{i = 1}} T_{i}$ （1）

式中：n为一年内有效积温持续天数（天）, 以连续5日滑动平均≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃分别确定; T_i为有效温度（℃）; A为一年内有效积温值（℃· d）。

$T_{i} = \overset{̅}{T} - T_{lower}$ （2）

式中：T_lower为下限温度（℃）; $\overset{̅}{T}$ 为日平均温度（℃）。

1.2.2 累积距平

累积距平是一种成熟的、通过观察曲线变化判断趋势的方法^[23]。对于时间序列x_i, 某一时刻i的累积距平为：

${\hat{x}}_{i} = \overset{t}{\sum_{i = 1}} (x_{i} - \bar{x})$ （3）

式中： $\bar{x} = \frac{1}{n} \overset{n}{\sum_{i = 1}} x_{i}$ ; t=1, 2, 3, …, n。

在得出所有累积距平值后, 绘制累积距平曲线, 通过曲线的上下起伏判断其发生突变的大致时间, 然后通过MK检验加以验证。

1.2.3 MK检验

MK检验^{[24, 25]}是一种成熟的趋势/突变检验方法, 具体展开见参考文献[23]。使用MK趋势检验计算各格点倾斜度β , 定义10β 为积温气候倾向率, 并将未通过统计学显著性检验的格点剔除, 使用MK突变检验确定有效积温时间序列突变点。

1.2.4 多元线性回归插值

格点数据等距、规则的特性使它与格点纬度、经度、海拔具有很好的相关性, 多元回归插值可以充分考虑纬度、经度、海拔对有效积温空间插值的影响, 使插值结果更加准确^{[4, 26]}。主要步骤如下：假设某一因变量y受n个自变量x₁, x₂, …, x_n的影响, 其k组观测值为（y_a, x₁_a, x₂_a, …, x_na）, a=1, 2, …, k。则多元线性回归模型的简式如下：

$y_{a} = β_{0} + β_{1} x_{1 a} + β_{2} x_{2 a} + \dots + β_{n} x_{na} + ϵ_{a}$ （4）

式中：β ₀, β ₁, …, β _n为待定参数; $ϵ_{a}$ 为误差项。如果b₀, b₁, b₂, …, b_n分别是β ₀, β ₁, β ₂, …, β _n的拟合值, 那么回归方程为：

$\hat{y} = b_{0} + b_{1} x_{1} + b_{2} x_{2} + \dots + b_{n} x_{n}$ （5）

式中：b₀为常数项; b₁, b₂, …, b_n分别为偏回归系数; $\hat{y}$ 为因变量的模拟值, 则因变量的观测值=模拟值 $\hat{y}$ +残差项 $y^{'}$ 的和, 即：

$y = \hat{y} + y^{'}$ （6）

本文对经度、纬度和海拔三个基础变量分别取 $μ (x_{n})$ 平方x²、三次方x³、余弦cosx、正弦sinx、自然对数lnx和指数e^x, 使用逐步回归甄选出最优回归模型, 在ArcGIS中得到各有效积温多元回归插值分布。

2 结果分析

2.1 ≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温气候倾向率

对≥ 5 ℃和≥ 10 ℃有效积温进行MK趋势检验, 通过显著性检验的格点如图1所示。结果表明, ≥ 5 ℃和≥ 10 ℃有效积温均呈明显的升高趋势。≥ 5 ℃有效积温通过显著性检验的格点较多, 积温升高范围大。≥ 5 ℃积温在南方地区升幅最为显著, 速率达 70 ℃· d/10 a的格点主要分布在华南、东南沿海及长江中下游地区, 大江大河（如珠江、长江、澜沧江等）两侧河漫滩及其三角洲平原的升幅最大; 北方地区整体升幅相对较低, 各山区倾向率尤为显著, 但部分地区如塔里木盆地、吐哈盆地、中央戈壁升幅较大; 升幅相对最小的区域主要分布在青藏高原地区, 倾向率< 0的格点较少, 主要分布在秦巴山区。≥ 10 ℃有效积温倾向率< 0与未通过显著性检验的格点相对较多, 其中< 0的格点则主要分布在青海高原、横断山脉和秦巴山区, 未通过检验的格点主要分布在藏北高原和喜马拉雅山脉; ≥ 10 ℃积温升幅在70 ℃· d/10 a的格点主要分布在北回归线以南地区, 北方地区整体升幅低于南方地区, 其中新疆部分地区升幅较大, 其他地区及青藏高原积温升幅最小。

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	图1 ≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温气候倾向率空间分布注：本图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2016)28858号的标准地图制作, 底图无修改, 下同。Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of climate tendency rate of effective accumulative temperature on the basis of ≥ 5 ℃ and ≥ 10 ℃

2.2 ≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温1961— 2016年均值空间分布

≥ 5 ℃有效积温整体表现出自南向北随纬度更替变化的地带性分布和自东向西随海拔变化的阶梯状分布。积温> 4000 ℃· d主要分布在南方地区, 占总格点的14.02%; 3000~4000 ℃· d积温带主要分布在黄淮海平原、塔里木盆地和云贵高原等地; 2000~3000 ℃· d积温带主要分布在北方地区的黄土高原和东北平原; < 2000 ℃· d积温带主要分布在青藏高原和部分北方山区, 这部分积温带面积占比最大。≥ 10 ℃有效积温空间分布与5 ℃积温相似, > 4000 ℃· d积温范围主要分布在北回归线以南地区, 其占比最小; 3000~4000 ℃· d积温带主要分布在长江以南地区; 2000~3000 ℃· d积温带主要分布在塔里木盆地、黄淮海平原和四川盆地; 东北、西北和青藏高原地区积温带多在2000 ℃· d以下（图2b）。

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	图2 1961— 2016年有效积温均值空间分布Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of the mean effective accumulative temperature from 1961 to 2016

≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温在东、中部地区受纬度影响明显, 但四川盆地受海拔影响出现高值区, 西部地区海拔对有效积温的影响强于纬度, 特别是新疆、云南地区及雅鲁藏布江下游, 有效积温变化明显, 各积温带呈阶梯式分布。对比≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温空间分布, ≥ 5 ℃中积温高值带所占区域大于≥ 10 ℃相同积温带（表1）, 而0~1000 ℃· d积温低值带比10 ℃相同积温带少15.11%, 这表明适宜喜凉作物种植的区域远大于喜温作物的适宜种植面积。

表1 1961— 2016年≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温均值的各积温带面积百分比 Table 1 The area percentage in various interdecadal effective accumulative temperature zones for ≥ 5 ℃ and ≥ 10 ℃ from 1961 to 2016 （%）

2.3 ≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温突变前后的空间变化

使用累积距平和MK突变检验确定全国≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温时间序列突变点, 二者突变点均为1997年（图3）。将突变前后有效积温均值用多元回归模型进行空间插值, 回归模型均通过显著性检验。图4a为≥ 5 ℃有效积温突变前后各积温等值线变化分布, 4000 ℃· d积温等值线整体北移, 在长江中下游向北最大移动2.1个纬距, 浙江省积温低值区在突变后面积缩小, 四川盆地4000 ℃· d以上积温范围有明显外扩趋势; 3000 ℃· d积温等值线北移较小, 此积温界限变动最大的地区在内蒙古的中央戈壁和准噶尔盆地; 2000 ℃· d积温界线在东北地区有北移趋势; > 2000 ℃· d积温带范围扩大; 包围青藏高原的1000 ℃· d积温等值线依山谷走势向高海拔地区攀移。图4b为≥ 5 ℃积温突变前后两个时段的平均积温差值, 南方地区积温增幅整体大于北方, 积温差值最大的地区主要分布在长江、珠江等主要河流沿岸及下游冲积平原, 城市化对区域温度的影响在≥ 5 ℃有效积温变化上亦得以体现。北方地区相对较小, 其中积温差值较大的地区则集中分布在塔里木盆地和吐哈盆地。积温差值小于150 ℃· d主要分布在青藏高原、天山、太行山等地, 仅有极少数高山地区（秦巴山区）积温差值为负。

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	图3 1961— 2016年中国≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温累积距平、突变的MK检验Fig. 3 The accumulated anomaly and MK abrupt change test of mean effective accumulative temperature for ≥ 5 ℃ and ≥ 10 ℃ from 1961 to 1990 in China

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	图4 1961— 1997年、1997— 2016年有效积温均值空间分布及其变化Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of the mean effective accumulative temperature from 1961 to 1997, 1997 to 2016 and the change between them

图4c为≥ 10 ℃有效积温突变前后各积温等值线变化分布, 4000 ℃· d积温等值线向北移动明显, > 4000 ℃· d有效积温所占面积扩大; 3000 ℃· d积温等值线在长江中游地区移动最为显著, 北移最大处达3.5个纬距, 在四川盆地外扩明显; 2000 ℃· d积温等值线在华北地区变化较小, 沿嘉陵江明显北移; 1000 ℃· d积温等值线主要分布在青藏高原边缘, 突变后有内缩趋势。图4d为积温突变前后两个时段的平均积温差值, 整体上南方比北方有效积温增加更多, 南方地区积温差值多在150 ℃· d以上, 北方多在 0~150 ℃· d之间; 差值> 300 ℃· d主要分布在我国南方的长三角、珠三角、东南沿海和云南南部地区, 北方吐鲁番盆地积温差值也较大; 积温差值为负的地区主要分布在藏北高原和秦巴山区。

计算1997年突变前后各积温带增减面积百分比（表2）, 分析可知, ≥ 5 ℃有效积温在突变后扩展面积最大的为> 4000 ℃· d积温带, 实际增加4%, 实际减少面积最大的在1000~2000 ℃· d积温带, 实际减少2.62%。≥ 10 ℃有效积温扩展面积最大的在 3000~4000 ℃· d积温带, 实际增加2.84%, 实际减少面积最大的在< 1000 ℃· d积温带, 实际减少3.65%。总体来说, 积温高值区面积增加, 积温低值区反之。

表2 ≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃各积温带1997年突变后增减面积百分比 Table 2 The percentage of acquired area and lost area after 1997 for each accumulated temperature zone on the basis of ≥ 5 ℃ and ≥ 10 ℃ (%)

2.4 ≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温起始时间及持续时间变化

统计有效积温突变前后的起始、结束时间的提前或推迟天数和持续时间增加或减少天数, 其空间分布如图5所示。北方地区≥ 5 ℃积温初始日提前天数整体少于南方地区, 天山山脉初始日甚至表现推迟现象; 结束日推迟天数整体多于南方地区。南方地区初始日提前天数整体较大, 但部分地区如云南省初始日呈推迟现象; 结束日推迟天数较小, 且秦巴山区表现出提前现象。青藏高原初始日（结束日）提前（推迟）天数最多。全国≥ 5 ℃积温持续时间整体呈增加趋势, 北方地区升幅整体低于南方地区, 但北方部分地区如塔里木盆地边缘、山间谷地增加幅度较大, 南方地区云贵高原持续时间出现减少现象。青藏高原持续时间整体增加最大, 藏北高原及昆仑山脉最明显。

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	图5 1961— 1997年、1997— 2016年有效积温（≥ 5 ℃：a~c; ≥ 10 ℃：d~f）初始日（a、d）、结束日（b、e）、持续时间（c、f）均值变化Fig. 5 The variations in the average value of the initial day (a, d), final day (b, e), duration (c, f) of the effective accumulative temperature （a-c for ≥ 5 ℃ and d-f for ≥ 10 ℃） between 1961-1997 and 1997-2016

全国除青藏高原以外地区≥ 10 ℃有效积温初始日（结束日）提前（推迟）均在 0~10日以内, 部分地区如塔里木盆地中部、环渤海西部地区初始日呈推迟现象。青藏高原地区≥ 10 ℃初始日（结束日）提前（推迟）天数整体最多, 但部分地区如昆仑山脉及藏南谷地表现为初始日推迟、结束日提前现象。≥ 10 ℃持续时间整体呈增加趋势, 南方地区较北方地区增幅大, 青藏高原增幅最小, 昆仑山脉、藏北高原及藏南谷地持续时间呈减少趋势。

表3 ≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃初始日与结束日（提前或推迟）、及持续时间（增减）各变化格点百分比 Table 3 Percentages of the changing grid points of initial and end days (ahead or delayed) and duration (increase or decrease) of ≥ 5 ℃ and ≥ 10 ℃ (%)

青藏高原≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃积温初始日（结束日）提前（推迟）、持续时间整体增加, 但突变前后的差值表明青藏高原积温升幅并不显著, 部分地区呈下降现象。这表明虽然通过5 ℃、10 ℃界线的天数增加, 但在增加的时间内日有效温度 $T_{i} = \overset{̅}{T} - T_{lower}$ 增幅较小。部分地区原积温序列中日有效温度减少可造成有效积温的下降现象。

3 结论与讨论

3.1 结论

（1）≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温均整体呈上升趋势, 且≥ 5 ℃整体升幅更为显著, 积温升高范围更大。两者升幅均表现为南方地区最大, 北方次之, 青藏高原最小, 秦巴山区积温呈现下降现象; ≥ 10 ℃积温在青海高原、横断山脉等地呈下降趋势。≥ 5 ℃积温升幅在70 ℃· d/10 a的格点主要分布于大江大河两侧河漫滩及其三角洲平原, 部分位于新疆地区及嘎顺戈壁; ≥ 10 ℃积温相同升幅格点主要位于北回归线以南地区。

（2）在空间分布上, ≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温整体表现出自南向北随纬度更替变化的地带性分布和自东向西随海拔变化的阶梯状分布, 其中东、中部地区受纬度影响明显, 西部地区受海拔影响强于纬度。适宜喜凉作物种植的区域远大于喜温作物的适宜种植面积。

（3）≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温均在1997年发生突变, 突变后≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃各积温带界线呈现向北、向高海拔移动的趋势, 积温整体升高。南方地区≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃积温增幅整体大于北方, 青藏高原及高山山区增幅最小, 秦岭地区积温增幅为负。≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃积温高值区面积增加, 积温低值区面积减少。

（4）≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温初始日（结束日）整体呈提前（推迟）现象, 且多数格点提前（推迟）日数在0~10 d以内, 持续时间在突变后整体延长。青藏高原≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃积温变化趋势最明显, 其初始日（结束日）提前（推迟）天数最大, ≥ 5 ℃积温持续日数增加最多, 而≥ 10 ℃积温持续时间增加不显著且部分地区呈减少趋势。

3.2 讨论

3.2.1 ≥ 5 ℃与≥ 10 ℃有效积温变化对全国种植制度的影响

气候变暖对全国不同地区的有效积温产生不同影响^[27], 华南、西南地区及长江中下游平原水稻界线向北向西移动, 界线通过区域由原本的两年三熟、一年两熟转变为一年两熟、两年五熟的种植制度^[28], 这与≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温在南方地区整体升幅较大相关。20世纪80年代后期华北平原一年一熟、两年三熟区的南界线向北移动, 东北平原喜凉作物一年一熟中部分区域变为一年两熟^[29], 1990— 2010年黄土高原冬小麦种植区域北移西扩并向高海拔地区扩展^[16], 全国各农作物产量稳定增加^{[18, 30, 31]}, 甘肃河西地区自90年代中期后, 玉米等喜温作物逐渐取代春小麦成为主要作物^[32]。这些研究结果均与全国 ≥ 5 ℃、≥ 10 ℃有效积温整体呈上升趋势、1997年突变前后各积温界线均向北和向高海拔移动相符合。

3.2.2 ≥ 5 ℃与≥ 10 ℃有效积温变化对全国作物物候的影响

作物物候变化与气候变化互为表征, 气候变暖使有效积温初始日（结束日）, 持续时间做出重大变化。赵彦茜等^[33]和金涛^[34]研究表明, 全国小麦整体上全生育期主要呈缩短趋势, 而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。其中华北及西北地区冬小麦过冬前播种期/出苗期推迟、过冬后抽穗期/开花期提前与≥ 5 ℃有效积温结束日推迟、初始日提前呼应, 气温升高加快小麦生长发育速度致使全生育期缩短与华北平原≥ 5 ℃积温的增加相符。中国北方地区的春小麦开花期和成熟期均提前, 全生育期缩短亦表明积温升高致使春小麦生长速度加快。东北、西北及华北地区玉米在单纯气温升高模拟的情况下, 八成的站点抽穗期、成熟期提前, 全生育期缩短与喜温作物有效积温整体上升对应。农业气象观测站实测数据表明华北地区夏玉米、西北和东北地区春玉米、东北平原及长江中下游平原单季稻播种期提前, 这与积温初始日的提前相关联; 成熟期推迟, 全生育期延长主要受晚熟品种选用的影响, 受积温的影响不明显。在气候变暖背景下, 晚熟品种的种植可以充分地利用升高的有效积温、初始日（结束日）提前（推迟）、持续时间增加等变化, 在一定意义上提高作物产量。

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2014

0.0

秦大河, STOCKER

. IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(1): 1-6.

[QIN D

, STOCKER

. Highlights of the IPCC working group 1 fifth assessment report. Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis, 2014, 10(1): 1-6. ]

Highlights of the IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) are the essence refined from the researches in the field of climate change physical science in the past seven years. More than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature since the 1950s was caused by the human influence. Nighty-three percent of the energy resulting from the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since 1971 is stored in the ocean. Besides, ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO 2 , causing the decrease in pH of ocean surface by 0.1, etc. Based on the CMIP5 models, it is projected that global warming will continue. Relative to 1986-2005, the global mean surface temperature by the end of the 21st century will increase by 0.3~4.8℃. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Controlling the warming caused by anthropogenic CO 2 emissions alone with a probability of >66% to less than 2℃ since the period 1861-1880, will require cumulative CO 2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and about 1000 Gt C since that period.

1 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 University of Bern, Bern 3012, Switzerland

IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）第一工作组（WGI）报告的亮点结论，是过去7年全世界气候变化科学研究成果凝练出来的精华。20世纪50年代以来全球气候变暖的一半以上是人类活动造成的。1971年以来人为排放温室气体产生热量的93%进入了海洋，海洋还吸收了大约30%人为排放的CO 2 ，导致海表水pH值下降了0.1，等等。采用全球耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的模式，预估未来全球气候变暖仍将持续，21世纪末全球平均地表温度在1986—2005年的基础上将升高0.3～4.8℃。限制气候变化需要大幅度持续减少温室气体排放。如果将1861—1880年以来人为CO 2 累积排放控制在1000 GtC，那么人类有超过66%的可能性把未来升温幅度控制在2℃以内（相对1861—1880年）。

... IPCC第五次评估报告^[1]指出,1880#cod#x02014 ...

2005

0.0

云雅如, 方修琦, 王媛, 等. 黑龙江省过去20年粮食作物种植格局变化及其气候背景. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(5): 697-705.

[YUN Y

, FANG X

, WANG

, et al. Main grain crops structural change and its climate background in Heilongjiang province during the past two decades. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(5): 697-705. ]

Global warming during the 20th century,especially the impacts of the global warming in the past two decades,has been paid much attention worldwide.A case study is made in this paper on the relationship between change of main grain crops structure and global warming in Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China,based on the statistical data of agriculture and ground based climate data during 1980 to 2000.Wheat,corn and rice are the three main crops planted in this province,the varieties of which indicate the human's response to the climate change.K-Means analysis is employed in this paper.It is found that,with the climate warming,the seeded area of rice has increased from 2×105hm 2 to 16.06×105hm 2 ,that of wheat deduced from 20.379×105hm 2 to 5.9×105hm 2 ,and the area of corn has been escalating.Thus the planting structure has been changed from wheat and corn in domination to corn and rice in domination in the past 20 years.The relationship between the main crops structure and the global warming is very evident.The northern planting boundary of the rice in Heilongjiang Province has extended to 52°N at north,and been pushing towards the east.The borderline of corn advanced to the north.At the meantime,the seeded area of wheat retreated northward.Changes of the main grain crops structure lie on the warming up procedure in Heilongjiang Province under global warming,which proved that temperature change has influenced human society to a certain extent,and people began to adapt to the new environment by transferring the land use patterns.

1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China; 2. School of Planning and Development, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin150030, China

根据黑龙江省1980～1999年的气候资料和1980～2000年水稻、小麦、玉米等主要粮食作物播种面积等统计资料,利用快速聚类分析方法分析了气候变化背景下黑龙江省主要粮食作物的种植格局和种植界限变化情况。结果表明:在过去20年里,全省主要粮食作物的播种面积变化显著。特别是进入20世纪90年代,水稻播种范围向北向东扩张趋势明显,种植面积比重显著增加;小麦种植面积比重快速降低,种植范围大幅向北退缩;玉米则在保持一个相对稳定的比例关系的基础上,逐渐向北部和东部伸展。粮食种植结构的这种调整使水稻逐渐取代小麦成为黑龙江省主要粮食作物之一,并最终导致该区主要粮食作物种植格局从以小麦和玉米为主转变为以玉米和水稻为主。上述粮食作物种植格局的变化与气候变暖带来的积温增加及积温带北移东扩密切相关。

... 中国幅员辽阔,农业资源区域差异巨大,气候变暖对不同区域产生的影响各自相异^[2,3,4,5] ...

2006

0.0

郭海英, 赵建萍, 索安宁, 等. 陇东黄土高原农业物候对全球气候变化的响应. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(4): 608-614.

[GUO H

, ZHAO J

, SUO A

, et al. Response of agricultural phenospectrum to global climate change in Loess Plateau of East Gansu province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006, 21(4): 608-614. ]

According to years of synchronous observations of growth spectrum of Dongzhiyuan main crops(e.g.winter wheat) and main fruit trees(e.g.apple,pear) and climatic change,this paper analyzes the ecological response of crop growth spectrum to the climatic change in Loess Plateau of east Gansu province.The result indicates that the mean annual temperature has presented an increasing trend notably in the last 35 years in Dongzhiyuan,and dominated by winter and spring warming(winter wheat over-wintering period temperature increase linear trend reaches 0.067 2℃/a),basically identical with the warming trend of global climate.It reaches 0.050 7℃/a,which is much higher than the mean national temperature increase range since the 1960s and also higher than the Loess Plateau in east Gansu province(0.034 8℃/a) in the last 35 years.It is also the central area in temperature increase in the study area.This further confirms that the eastern part of Northwest China is one of the regions witnessing greater temperature increase range.The impact of climate warming on ecology of winter wheat and fruit tree ia mainly reflected in advance in growth stage generally in spring in Dongzhiyuan and winter wheat over-wintering stage shortens notably(the shortened linear trend reaching 0.674d/a).However,winter wheat and fruit tree growth intervals at various phases do not present shortening trend.And because the locally plant winter wheat variety is strong winter enduring and long sunshine tolerate variety,the advancement in growth period causes the shortening of sunshine time,restricts crop or plant growth to a certain degree and offsets partly,the temperature increase effect.Therefore,the linear trend of fruit tree puberty in advance in spring is more obvious than the winter wheat.With regard to fruit tree,the linear trend of puberty of pear tree in advance is more obvious than the apple tree in spring.The conclusion is that the impact of climatic change is both advantageous and disadvantageous to agriculture.So the relevant agricultural administrative department should follow the local climatic change characteristics to adjust the cropping pattern in time,optimize the mode of planting,go after profits and advoid disadvantages,fully excavate the resource potentiality of the climate and improve the agricultural economic benefits.

1. Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020,China; 2. Department of Agronomy,Longdong College,Qingyang745000,China; 3. College of Life Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China; 4. Xifeng Agro-meteorological Experiment Station in Gansu Province,Qingyang 745000,China

通过对多年来陇东黄土高原董志塬主要农作物冬小麦和主要果树苹果、梨发育物候和气候变化的同步观测,分析了陇东黄土高原农作物发育物候对气候变化的生态响应。分析发现,董志塬近35年来年平均气温呈显著增加的趋势,且以冬季和春季增温为主(冬小麦越冬期增温线性趋势达0.0672℃a/),和全球气候变暖趋势基本一致。增温线性趋势达0.0507℃a/,远高于全国20世纪60年代以来平均增温幅度,也高于陇东黄土高原近35年平均增温幅度(0.0348℃a/),是陇东黄土高原增温中心地带。气候变暖对董志塬冬小麦和果树的生态影响主要体现在春季发育期普遍提前,冬小麦越冬期显著缩短(缩短的线性趋势达0.674d a/),而冬小麦和果树春季各发育期间隔并未出现缩短的趋势。而且由于当地种植冬小麦品种为强冬性、长日照型品种,发育期提前导致日长缩短,对发育有一定抑制作用,抵消了一部分增温的影响,因此果树春季各发育期提前的线性趋势比冬小麦明显。就果树而言,梨树春季发育期提前的线性趋势又比苹果树明显。结论认为气候变化对农业的影响有利有弊,农业管理部门应根据当地气候变化特征,及时调整种植结构,优化种植模式,趋利避害,充分挖掘气候资源潜力,提高农业经济效益。

... 中国幅员辽阔,农业资源区域差异巨大,气候变暖对不同区域产生的影响各自相异^[2,3,4,5] ...

2009

0.0

刘勤, 严昌荣, 何文清, 等. 黄河流域近40 a积温动态变化研究. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(1): 147-153.

[LIU

, YAN C

, HE W

, et al. Dynamic variation of accumulated temperature data in recent 40 years in the Yellow River Basin. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(1): 147-153. ]

论文应用国家气象局提供的黄河流域109个气象站点40a的气象资料和中国数字高程模型，采用 “回归分析计算+残差插值”法对黄河流域≥0℃和≥10℃的积温进行栅格化，得到10a尺度的栅格面，在ArcGIS中分别对≥0℃和≥10℃的积温栅格面进行空间分析和统计分析。结果表明：40a间≥0℃积温保持不变的面积占84.59%，积温段ⅰ（＜2 000℃）升到积温段ⅱ（2 000~3 000℃）的为2.07%，积温段ⅱ升到ⅲ（3 000~4 000℃）的为3.14%，积温段ⅲ升到ⅳ（4 000~5 000℃）的为3.35%，积温段ⅳ升到ⅴ（>5 000℃）的为3.76%；40a间≥10℃积温保持不变面积占85.58%，积温段ⅱ升到ⅲ的为7.31%，积温段ⅰ升到ⅱ、积温段ⅲ升到ⅳ和积温段ⅳ升到ⅴ占的面积较小，分布不集中。总体来说黄河流域≥0℃、≥10℃年积温值呈升高的趋势，主要是受全球气候变暖的影响。

... 中国幅员辽阔,农业资源区域差异巨大,气候变暖对不同区域产生的影响各自相异^[2,3,4,5] ...

... 格点数据等距、规则的特性使它与格点纬度、经度、海拔具有很好的相关性,多元回归插值可以充分考虑纬度、经度、海拔对有效积温空间插值的影响,使插值结果更加准确^[4,26] ...

2013

0.0

张立波, 娄伟平. 气候变暖对长江中下游地区热量资源分布的影响分析. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(8): 1361-1372.

[ZHANG L

, LOU W

. Impact of climate warming on the distribution of thermal resources in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(8): 1361-1372. ]

Based on the daily average air temperature data from 90 meteorological stations in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River from 1960 to 2010, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of accumulated temperature steadily above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃, their lasting days, the beginning and ending date over recent 51 years were identified by using linear trend estimation, so as to find out the impact of climate warming on the distribution of thermal resources in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River. The results showed that the air temperature increased continuously in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River, and the regression coefficient of annual average air temperature was 0.21 ℃/10 a, the trend coefficient was 0.63( P P <0.05). The lasting days steadily above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ increased generally in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River along with climate warming, the accumulated temperature steadily above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ increased significantly during the same period. The widespread increase of the accumulated temperature steadily above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ and their lasting days was influenced by the beginning date advancing and the ending date delaying. Furthermore the influence of the beginning date advancing was more obvious than that of the ending date delaying. The north subtropical zone and middle subtropical zone have moved greatly northward in the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River since the 2000s, the northern boundary of north subtropical zone has moved out of the lower-middle reaches of the Changjiang River before the 1990s, the northern boundary of middle subtropical zone moved to near 32°N, i. e., 2-3 degrees of latitude northward, compared to the period 1960-1999. The northern limits of the three-cropping systems and the cultivable areas for double harvest rice moved northward obviously after the 1990s, and the mean movement magnitude was bigger than two latitude distance in comparison with the 1960s.

1. Shaoxing Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province, Shaoxing 312000, China; 2. Xinchang Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province, Xinchang 312500, China

利用1960—2010年长江中下游地区90个气象站日平均气温资料,运用线性倾向估计等方法,对近51 a来≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃积温及其持续天数和起止日期的时空分布特征进行分析,以了解气候变暖对该区热量资源分布的影响。结果表明:近51 a来长江中下游地区气温持续增暖,回归系数达0.21 ℃/10 a,略低于同期中国的增温速率(0.27 ℃/10 a),且与各项热量资源指标有显著的相关性。随着气候变暖,≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃积温及持续天数普遍显著增加,是受起始日期提前和终止日期延后的共同影响,而前者的影响更明显。21世纪00年代起北亚热带和中亚热带在长江中下游地区北移特征显著,明显与20世纪90年代以前的界线拉开了距离;20世纪90年代以后,一年三熟制种植北界和双季稻可种植区北界明显北移,21世纪00年代与19世纪60年代相比,其平均移动幅度超过2个纬距。

... 中国幅员辽阔,农业资源区域差异巨大,气候变暖对不同区域产生的影响各自相异^[2,3,4,5] ...

2005

0.0

刘德祥, 董安祥, 邓振镛. 中国西北地区气候变暖对农业的影响. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(1): 119-125.

[LIU D

, DONG A

, DENG Z

. Impact of climate warming on agriculture in Northwest China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(1): 119-125. ]

Using data of 171 observations from 1961 to 2003 in Northwest China,mean monthly temperature,highest temperature,lowest temperature,accumulated temperature ≥0℃,≥10℃,and negative accumulated temperature <0℃ were collected to analyze response of climate warming on heat resource and impact of climate warming on agricultural production.The results showed that mean monthly temperature,highest temperature,lowest temperature and accumulated temper-ature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ of 1987～2003 were significantly higher than that of 1961～1986,especially the lowest temperature increment markedly increasing and the increment of winter greater than that of summer,the lowest temperature rising played a main role on climate war-ming over Northwest China.The negative accumulated temperature <0℃ reduced obviously.As the trends of climate change appeared warming since the late 1980s in Northwest China,thermal resource increased,planting areas of heliophilous crops expanded,the planting area of north boundary of crops would extend northward which is favorable for animals to overwinter and spend spring.The negative impacts of climate warming on agriculture is greater than the positive.

1. Lanzhou Central Meteorology observatory, Lanzhou 730020, China; 2. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China

选取西北地区资料年代较长的171个地面测站1961～2003年日平均气温资料,计算历年≥0℃、≥10℃积温和<0℃负积温,深入研究西北地区热量资源对气候变暖的响应及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:1987～2003年比1961～1986年的平均值明显增高,尤以最低气温增幅最大,这说明最低气温的变化比最高气温的变化更敏感,西北地区气候变暖主要来自最低气温升高的贡献。冬季升温幅度大于夏季,<0℃负积温绝对值明显减少。西北地区20世纪80年代后期气候明显变暖,热量资源增加,喜温作物面积扩大,越冬作物种植区北界向北扩展,对牧区牲畜越冬度春有利。西北地区气候变暖对农业的负面影响大于正面影响。

... 气候变暖使作物物候做出较大的改变^[6,7,8,9],认知气候变化的具体过程及产生的影响是农业发展应对增温变暖的关键 ...

2008

0.0

蔺涛, 谢云, 刘刚, 等. 黑龙江省气候变化对粮食生产的影响. 自然资源学报, 2008, 23(2): 307-318.

[LIN

, XIE

, LIU

, et al. Impact of climate change on crop yields in Heilongjiang province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2008, 23(2): 307-318. ]

Climate warming was significant in recent 20 years in Heilongjiang province. Many researchers found that increase of heat was beneficial to agricultural production except for drought and meteorological disasters in this province. The existing researches neither fully considered the spatial difference nor the impact of economic factors. In order to disintegrate physical and economic factors in grain yields more reasonably and analyze their different impacts on changes of yields in Heilongjiang Province, we collected the data of agricultural production (labors input, power input, irrigation input, fertilizer input, agriculture output, grain yields, and sown area of crops)from 1986 to 2000 in 79 counties of Heilongjiang Province, based on which grain yield ( Y ) was divided into climatic yield ( Yc ) and economic yield ( Yt ) by the method of Cobb-Douglas Production Function. Daily temperature and precipitation of 30 weather stations were used to calculate accumulated temperature ≥10℃ and precipitation during growing season. EOF method was applied to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of grain yield, climatic impact index ( Yc/Yt ), accumulated temperature ≥10℃ and growing season precipitation whose relationships were also considered. The results showed that grain yields of the whole province steadily increased during the past 15 years. Fertilizer was the leading driving force of economy that influenced the economic yields. Labors and R&D Fund Input in agriculture were not as important as fertilizer input. At the same time, power and irrigation input played the relative less roles in so many economic factors. Climate warming was significant from 1986 to 2000 in Heilongjiang Province. Accumulated temperature ≥10℃ increased 21-27℃ per year, benefiting agricultural production in most parts of the province. However, no obvious precipitation trend of growing season was found, and the change of precipitation didn’t essentially affect crop yields. The climate impact index increased during 15 years with different temporal and spatial variations. From 1986 to 1993, accumulated temperature ≥10℃ increased more obviously in the northern and southwestern parts of the province than the northeastern and southeastern parts, which had greater impacts on crop yields. While the converse situation existed from 1993 to 2000. Accumulated temperature ≥10℃ increased much more obvious in the northeastern and southeastern parts than the northern and southwestern parts, so did crop yields.

1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China

收集1986~2000年黑龙江省79个县市农业生产资料和30个气象台站逐日气温、降水资料,应用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数方法将粮食产量分解为气候产量和经济产量,然后用EOF方法分析了粮食产量、气候影响程度指数、≥10℃积温、生长季降水的时空变化特征及其关系。结果表明:15年间全省粮食产量稳步增加,气候变暖趋势明显但降水变化不显著,变暖对粮食生产有利,降水的变化未对粮食产量产生实质影响。15年间气候影响程度总体增大,但气候变化及其影响具有时空差异性:1986~1993年北部和西南部积温增加明显,粮食产量增加大于东北部和东南部;1993~2000年东北部和东南部积温增加明显,粮食产量增加超过北部和西南部。

... 气候变暖使作物物候做出较大的改变^[6,7,8,9],认知气候变化的具体过程及产生的影响是农业发展应对增温变暖的关键 ...

2010

0.0

叶彩华, 栾庆祖, 胡宝昆, 等. 北京农业气候资源变化特征及其对不同种植模式玉米各生育期的影响. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(8): 1350-1364.

[YE C

, LUAN Q

, HU B

, et al. Agricultural climate resources change characteristics of Beijing and related impacts on maize planted in different zones and different growth periods. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(8): 1350-1364. ]

This paper aims to research the potential impacts resulted by the agricultural climate change by analyzing agricultural climate resources of heat, precipitation and sunshine for maize, including mountain spring maize, plain spring maize and plain summer maize, in sowing to elongation growth period, elongation to anthesis growth period, anthesis to silking growth period, silking to mature growth period, and the whole growth period. Statistic regression was used to reveal the time series characteristics of different kinds of maize during key growth period. Besides, we adopted Mann-Kendall and Pettitt methods in classical abrupt change theory to analyze trends and detect abrupt change characteristics of agricultural climate resources. On the basis of data analysis, we discussed the potential impacts on maize resulted from climate change according to relative research of other scholars and proposed corresponding solutions to it. The results are as follows: In recent 50 years, for Beijing, the annual active accumulated temperature and effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ for maize in the whole growth period, showed no significant increasing trend without abrupt change point; while precipitation in sowing to elongation growth period got an increasing trend, precipitation of plain summer maize in elongation to anthesis growth period, plain spring maize in silking to mature growth period, hold a significant descending trend, and the other growth period showed no significant descending trend, with all growth periods having no significant abrupt change points; moreover, except for anthesis to silking growth period, sunshine resources in all the other growth periods showed significant descending trends with significant abrupt change points occurring between the mid 1980s and mid 1990s. And it concluded that according to international relative research on climate change, agricultural climate resources changing trends of Beijing may produce both positive and negative impacts on maize. In response to the increasing trend of accumulated temperature, measures should be taken to prolong grain-filling growth period. As to the descending trends of precipitation, maize variety of drought-resistance and effective drought fighting technique should be introduced; solutions for solving the descending trend of sunshine hours, maize of strong shade tolerance should be selected and attention should be paid to planting at proper intervals in order to improve ventilation and light transmission conditions.

1. Beijing Climate Center, Beijing 100089, China; 2. Beijing Meteorological Information Center, Beijing 100089, China; 3. Beijing Agro-Technical Extension Center, Beijing 100029, China

分析1960—2008年北京山区和平原的春玉米、平原夏玉米不同生育期的热量、水、光等农业气候资源的变化趋势和突变特征,研究农业气候资源变化对玉米可能产生的影响。利用统计回归分析方法研究不同种植模式玉米在关键生育期内主要农业气候资源历史时间序列特征,同时以突变理论中的Mann-Kendall方法和Pettitt方法分析主要气候资源的趋势变化特征并检测其突变特征;在数据分析的基础上,结合国内和国际相关研究成果讨论北京市气候资源变化对玉米生长的可能性影响并给出相应对策。结果显示:近50 a来北京地区大于10 ℃的年活动积温和玉米全生育期有效积温呈现明显增长趋势,变化过程中无明显的突变特征;玉米播种—拔节期降水量呈增加的趋势,平原夏玉米在拔节—抽雄期和全生育期、平原春玉米在吐丝—成熟期降水量减少趋势均达显著水平,其它生育期间降水呈现不明显的下降趋势,但无明显突变点;除了抽雄—吐丝期外,玉米各生育期光照资源呈现明显的下降趋势,不同生育期的突变点均出现在20世纪80年代中期到90年代中期。北京地区农业气候资源变化趋势对玉米生产有利有弊:对积温增长的响应应以灌浆期延长为主要方式,对降水减少的响应应以种植抗旱品种和加大抗旱技术研究为主,对光照资源显著减少的对策应以调节田间通风透光和培育耐阴性品种为主。

... 气候变暖使作物物候做出较大的改变^[6,7,8,9],认知气候变化的具体过程及产生的影响是农业发展应对增温变暖的关键 ...

2017

0.0

... 气候变暖使作物物候做出较大的改变^[6,7,8,9],认知气候变化的具体过程及产生的影响是农业发展应对增温变暖的关键 ...

2017

0.0

... 10 ℃积温总体呈上升趋势,在20世纪90年代最为突出^[10] ...

2014

0.0

胡琦, 潘学标, 邵长秀, 等. 1961—2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征. 中国农业气象, 2014, 35(2): 119-127.

[HU

, PAN X

, SHAO C

, et al. Distribution and variation of china agricultural heat resources in 1961-2010. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2014, 35(2): 119-127. ]

Based on observed meteorological data from 508 stations in China，the distribution characteristics of heat resources were analyzed by using climatic trend rate and GIS methods in national scale in recent 50 years （1961-2010），and the change characteristics of heat resources between two periods （period Ι 1961-1980，period Ⅱ 1981-2010） were compared The results showed that the heat resources distributed unevenly，and more heat resources in southern China than that in northern China The key influence factor in eastern China was latitude，while topography was key factor in western China Counter lines of average daily temperature 0℃，10℃ and 15℃ in period Ⅱ moved northward comparing with period Ι，days of average daily temperature≥0℃ and ≥10℃ increased 5.5d and 4.7d on average，respectively The distribution and change of average daily temperature≥0℃ was similar to that of accumulated temperature≥10℃The areas of the accumulated temperature zone of 5500-6100℃·d （≥0℃accumulated temperature） and 5300-6500℃·d （≥10℃ accumulated temperature） increased by 5.32×10.4km and 1.92×10.3km，respectively The climatic trend rate of average temperature was 0.27℃/10y in 1961-2010，and the climatic trend rate of maximum and minimum temperature was 0.37℃/10y and 0.21℃/10y in northern China The accumulated temperature≥0℃ and ≥10℃increased 70℃d/10y The heat resources （mean temperature，minimum and maximum temperature，accumulated temperature） in China showed a increasing tendency in recent 50 years，and minimum temperature played a major role on climate warming，whose variation degree was larger than that of maximum temperature Climate warming might have some impacts on agricultural production and agro climatic zone （including introduction，maturity type shift and planting area expansion，etc） The research result was helpful to determine the appropriate agro climatic indexes and crop cultivation area

1 College of Resources and Environmental Sciences，China Agricultural University，Beijing100193，China；2 Wuchuan Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of AgroEnvironment，Ministry of Agriculture，Huhhot011705

利用全国508个气象站点1961-2010年地面气象观测资料，采用气候倾向率和GIS方法研究了近50a全国尺度热量资源分布，并比较分析1961-1980年（Ⅰ）和1981-2010年（Ⅱ）两个时段的热量资源变化特征。结果表明：全国热量资源分布不均匀，总体特征为南多北少，东部主要受纬度的影响，西部则受地形影响。与时段Ⅰ相比，时段Ⅱ平均温度0℃、10℃和15℃等值线均存在北移现象；日平均气温≥0℃和≥10℃的持续日数平均增加5.5d和4.7d；日平均气温≥0℃和≥10℃积温分布和变化趋势相似，华南地区5500～6100℃·d（≥0℃积温）和5300～6500℃·d（≥10℃积温）积温带面积分别增加5.32×10.4km和1.92×10.3km。1961-2010年，平均温度气候倾向率为0.27℃/10a，增暖趋势显著，且北方增暖趋势较南方明显；最低、最高温度气候倾向率分别为0.37℃/10a和0.21℃/10a。≥0℃积温和≥10℃积温增加趋势大体一致，约为70℃d/10a。近50a，全国热量资源（平均温度、最高、最低温度和积温）呈增加趋势，且最低温度变化幅度高于最高温度，对气候增暖起主要作用。气候增暖将对农业生产的空间分布产生影响，使基于原来指标和气候确定的农业气候区划边界与当前气候现实存在偏离，研究热量资源的分布和变化对合理利用热量资源，确定合适的农业气候指标和作物种植区域具有指导意义。

... d/10 a,各起始时间提前、持续时间增加^[11] ...

2009

0.0

缪启龙, 丁园圆, 王勇. 气候变暖对中国亚热带北界位置的影响. 地理研究, 2009, 28(3): 634-642.

[LIAO Q

, DING Y

, WANG

. Impact of climate warming on the northern boundary of sub-tropical zone of China. Geographical Research, 2009, 28(3): 634-642. ]

Changes of the climatic zones are related to climate warming and its impacts. The northern boundary of sub-tropical zone is between the temperate and sub-tropical zones, which is a very important boundary in China's climatic divisions. In this paper a case study is made on the impact of climate warming on the northern boundary of sub-tropical zones of China. The data covering about 55 years (1951~2005) of daily mean temperature with 740 stations are obtained from China Meteorological Administration. According to the definition of the first class climatic zone from Climatological Atlas of the People's Republic of China, the authors use the number of days with secular pentad mean temperature passing through ≥10℃ as the main index, and January mean air temperature as the auxiliary indices. Namely the definition of the northern boundary of sub-tropical zone is the divide where the number of days with secular pentad mean temperature passing through ≥10℃ reaches 218, the accumulated temperature with ≥10℃ is 4500~4800℃, and January mean air temperature is 0℃. The authors count respectively the inter-decadal changes of indices of the first class climatic zone in north sub-tropical and temperate zones in 1951~2005, and the changes of the north sub-tropical belt in the periods 1951~1970, 1971~1990 and 1991~2005. The results show that: the number of days of secular pentad mean temperature passing through ≥10℃, the accumulated temperature ≥10℃ and January mean air temperature all have an upward trend in the 55 years in the vicinity of 34 degrees north latitude. Since the 1950s, there has been little change in the western section of the northern boundary of sub-tropical zone; the central and eastern sections of the northern boundary of sub-tropical zone moved to the north over a large range. By the beginning of the 21st century the central and eastern sections has moved to near 35°N, i.e., 2~3 degrees of latitude northward, compared with the period 1951~1970. The northern boundary of sub-tropical zone moving towards the north, which is a response to climate warming, will have a very important influence on the agricultural pattern and the ecological environment.

1. KLME, Nanjing University of Information Science &|Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2. College of Application Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science &|Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 3. College of Atmosphere Science, Nanjing University of Information Science &|Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

在全球气候变暖的背景下,中国气候带也有相应的变化。亚热带北界是暖温带与北亚热带的交界,是中国气候带上的一个重要分界线。论文讨论了气候变暖对中国亚热带北界的影响。数据资料来自于中国气象局,采用中国740个站点1951~2005年的日平均温度资料。根据《中华人民共和国气候图集》中气候区划的第一级气候带定义指标,以≥10℃天数为主导指标,≥10℃积温、1月平均温度为辅助指标,定义亚热带北界为≥10℃天数为218天,≥10℃积温为4500~4800℃,1月平均气温为0℃。分别统计1951~2005年暖温带与亚热带指标的年代变化及亚热带北界在1951~1970、1971~1990、1991~2005年的位置演变,结果表明:34°N附近55年来≥10℃天数、≥10℃积温、1月平均温度都呈上升趋势。20世纪50年代至今,亚热带北界西段几乎没有变化;亚热带北界中东段向北推移幅度较大,到本世纪初向北已推移到35°N附近,较1951~1970年向北推移2~3个纬度。亚热带北界位置的向北推移是对全球气候变暖的一种响应,这将对我国农业布局和生态环境有重要影响。

... 作物种植北界北移^[12] ...

2011

0.0

何永坤, 郭建平. 1961—2006年东北地区农业气候资源变化特征. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(7): 1199-1208.

[HE Y

, GUO J

. Characteristics of agricultural climate resources in the three provinces of Northeast China from 1961 to 2006. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(7): 1199-1208. ]

Based on the meteorological data at 72 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2006 in three provinces of Northeast China, the variation characteristics of agro-climatic resources including stable farming stage, the growing period, accumulated temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours were analyzed. The results showed that the average farming stage and growing period prolonged for 2.4 days and 2.3 days per one decade, respectively. The M-K test results showed that the mutation time of the farming stage and the growing period was 1988 and 1992, respectively. Accumulated temperatures increased consistently in 46 years, with the climatic variation trend of 63.2 ℃·d·10 a -1 and 58.6 ℃·d·10 a -1 in the corresponding two periods. In 1961-2006, there were decreasing trends in both farming stage and growing season’s precipitation, especially in the southern part of Liaoning Province. The climatic variation rates of two stages were-7.1 mm·10 a -1 and -6.2 mm·10 a -1 respectively. The decreasing rate of sunshine hours in the corresponding two periods were -10.3 h·10 a -1 and -5.1 h·10 a -1 , and the decreasing trends were much more obvious in the northwestern part of Jilin and Liaoning provinces. However, sunshine hours increased in the northern pare of Heilongjiang Province. Compared with the change characteristic in 1961-1987, average accumulated temperature increased by 172 ℃·d in the farming stage in 1988-2006. The area with accumulated temperature ≥3200 ℃ moved eastward and northward by about 11.8×10 4 km 2 . Meanwhile, the average accumulated temperature in 1992-2006 increased by 156.9 ℃·d in growing season compared with those in 1961-1991. The border of the belt with accumulated temperature ≥2 800 ℃·d moved northeastward by about 7.79×10 4 km 2 . In general, precipitation in most research areas decreased, but increased in some parts of Heilongjiang. The average precipitation decreased by 15.5 mm in the farming stage. The high and low value regions narrowed to some degrees, while the regions with moderate value of 500-650 mm expanded southeastward by about 4.5×10 4 km 2 . Average precipitation in growing season decreased by 13.8 mm. The regions with the value of ≥400 mm reduced by about 3.39×10 4 km 2 , especially in the eastern part of Heilongjiang Province and the southern part of Liaoning Province. There was no significant change of sunshine hours in the farming stage, however, the spatial difference was obvious with high and low density areas decreasing while middle density areas increasing. The area with sunshine hours of 1500-1800 h expanded by 11.8×10 4 km 2 in the farming stage, but the average sunshine hours decreased by 27.9 h in the growing period in 1992-2006. The area with sunshine hours of 1000-1300 h narrowed by 5.25×10 4 km 2 in the growing period. Moreover, the increasing areas were mainly distributed in eastern and western parts of Heilongjiang Province.

1. Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Science, Chongqing 401147, China; 2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

应用1961—2006年中国东北三省72个气象台站的气象资料,统计分析了东北三省稳定农耕期、生长期及积温、降水量、日照时数农业气候资源的变化特征,结果表明:研究期间,东北三省平均农耕期、生长期分别延长了2.4 d·10 a -1 、2.3 d·10 a -1 ;经Mann-Kendall检验,农耕期长度、生长期长度分别在1988年、1992年发生突变。46 a东北三省积温表现为一致的增多趋势,降水量、日照时数呈减少趋势。分析比较突变年前后两个时段的农业气候资源变化,农耕期、生长期平均积温高值区向东、向北扩展;农耕期降水量高值区、低值区面积萎缩,中值区向东南方向扩张,生长期降水量中高值区面积减少;农耕期平均日照时数呈现高值区、低值区面积减少,而生长期日照时数呈现高值区、低值区面积增大的特点。

... 另有学者基于小区域尺度对东北地区^[13]、西北地区^[14]、黄土高原^[15,16]、新疆地区^[17]及汉中盆地^[18]等活动积温展开研究,研究内容包括农业气候资源变化情况与气候变化对各种作物物候及种植区域的影响等 ...

2010

0.0

孙杨, 张雪芹, 郑度. 气候变暖对西北干旱区农业气候资源的影响. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(7): 1153-1162.

[SUN

, ZHANG X

, ZHENG

. The impact of climate warming on agricultural climate resources in the arid region of Northwest China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(7): 1153-1162. ]

It is the precondition and foundation to explore the impact of climate warming on agricultural climate resources in the Arid Region of Northwest China (ARNC) for researches on the adaptation of agricultural production to climate change. Based on daily homogenization temperatures during 1961 to 2007 from 77 weather stations in the ARNC, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of various agro-climatic indicators were analyzed by using the methods of five-day sliding average and the linear trend estimation. The results revealed that frost days (FD), warm days (WD), the length of growing season (GSL), the frost-free period (FFP) and the active accumulated temperatures above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ (CT0, CT10) had changed significantly and exhibited remarkable regional differences. WD, GSL and FFP increased with an obvious upward trend, and the spatial distribution of their multi-year average values revealed higher values in the southern parts than that in the northern ones, which was contrary for FD. During the 47-year study period, CT0 and CT10 was characterized by significant increasing rate at 80.0 ℃·d/10 a and 77.0 ℃·d/10 a, respectively, with six obvious different sub-regions in active accumulated temperatures for the whole ARNC. The agricultural climate resources in the ARNC had changed significantly, which had both positive and negative impacts on agricultural production. On the one hand, the thermal resources improved in the ARNC, resulting in an extending of the crop growing periods, and the increasing of plant climate productivity at a rate of 15.6 g/(m 2 ·10 a). On the other hand, the extreme weather and climate events such as heat and chilling injuries occurred with an accelerating frequency and an enlarging intensity, which would increase the instability of agricultural production. Thus, it is essential to use the agro-climatic resources reasonably in order to cope with and adapt to the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the ARNC.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

在气候变暖背景下,西北干旱区气候资源变化如何影响农业是该区农业应对气候变化研究的前提与基础。论文根据西北干旱区1961—2007年77个气象站点均一化气温数据和日照时数数据,采用5 d滑动平均和线性倾向估计方法,分析了各农业气候指标的时间变化特征与区域差异。研究表明,霜冻日、暖日、生长期、无霜期、≥0 ℃与≥10 ℃活动积温的变化趋势显著且区域特色鲜明。暖日、生长期、无霜期变化呈显著上升趋势,其多年平均值空间分布主要表现为"南高北低"的特征,而霜冻日则相反;≥0 ℃、≥10 ℃的活动积温亦呈明显增加趋势(增长率分别为80 ℃·d/10 a、77 ℃·d/10 a),且可分为6个空间差异显著的活动积温特征区域。农业气候资源变化对西北干旱区农业生产影响利弊各兼。一方面,干旱区热量资源得以改善,作物生育期延长,天然植被气候生产力显著增加;另一方面,干旱区热害与冷害等极端气温事件增加,光照资源显著减少,水资源严重缺乏和分布不均,这造成了农业生产的不稳定性增加。

2016

0.0

2017

0.0

... 2010年黄土高原冬小麦种植区域北移西扩并向高海拔地区扩展^[16],全国各农作物产量稳定增加^[18,30,31],甘肃河西地区自90年代中期后,玉米等喜温作物逐渐取代春小麦成为主要作物^[32] ...

2013

0.0

普宗朝, 张山清, 李景林, 等. 近50 a新疆≥0 ℃持续日数和积温时空变化. 干旱区研究, 2013, 30(5): 781-788.

[PU Z

, ZHANG S

, LI J

, et al. Spatiotemporal change of duration and accumulated temperature of temperature ≥0 ℃ in Xinjiang in recent 50 years. Arid Zone Research, 2013, 30(5): 781-788. ]

Global warming has become as an indisputable fact, under its impact, the agroclimatic resources, especially the heat resources, will be significantly changed in most parts of the world. The duration and accumulated temperature of temperature ≥0 ℃ were the important indices of evaluating heat resources. Xinjiang is an important area of agricultural and animal husbandry production in China, but heat shortage is one of the main factors restricting agricultural and animal husbandry production. Therefore, it is of an important practical significance to research the spatiotemporal changes of the first date, final date, duration and accumulated temperature of temperature ≥0 ℃under the background of global warming. In this paper, the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, Ttest and ArcGISbased mixed interpolation were used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of the first date, final date, duration and accumulated temperature of temperature ≥0 ℃ based on the daily temperature data observed by 95 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during the period of 1961-2010. The main results are as follows: the spatial distribution of the first date, final date, duration and accumulated temperature of temperature ≥0 ℃ was obviously different from different regions in Xinjiang. Generally, the first date of temperature ≥0 ℃came earlier in south Xinjiang than in north Xinjiang, and it also came earlier in the plains and basins than in the mountainous regions. The final date of temperature ≥0 ℃ was just opposite to the first date. The duration and accumulated temperature of temperature ≥0 ℃ were longer and higher in south Xinjiang than in north Xinjiang, and they were also longer and higher in the plains and basins than in the mountainous regions. Under the background of global warming, the mean first date of temperature ≥0 ℃ at 95 meteorological stations came earlier with a rate of -0.86 d·（10a） -1 , and its abrupt change occurred in 1997. The mean final date of temperature ≥0 ℃ came later with a rate of 1.72 d·（10a） -1 , and its abrupt change occurred in 1994. The duration and accumulated temperature of temperature ≥0 ℃ were in an increase trend with rates of 2.58 d·（10a） -1 and 66.26 ℃·d·（10a） -1  respectively, and their abrupt change occurred in 1997. The change ranges before and after the abrupt change were quite different from different regions, generally, the first date of temperature ≥0 ℃ came earlier in south Xinjiang than in north Xinjiang, the final date of temperature ≥0 ℃ came later in the northern and mountainous areas than in the plains, basins and southern areas, the duration of temperature ≥0 ℃ was prolonged longer in the mountainous areas than in the plains and basins, and the increment of accumulated temperature of temperature ≥0 ℃ was higher in the plains and basins than in the mountainous areas.

1. Urumqi Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002,China; 2. Xinjiang Agrometeorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China

利用新疆95个气象站1961—2010年的逐日平均气温资料，使用线性趋势分析、累积距平和[WTBX]t[WTBZ]检验以及基于ArcGIS的混合插值法，对新疆近50 a日平均气温稳定≥0 ℃的初日、终日、持续日数和活动积温的时空变化进行分析。结果表明：≥0 ℃的初日在空间分布上南疆早，北疆晚；平原和盆地早，山区晚的格局。≥0 ℃终日的空间分布与≥0 ℃初日大体相反。≥0 ℃持续日数和≥0 ℃积温的空间分布表现为南疆多，北疆少；盆地多，山区少的格局。在全球变暖背景下，1961—2010年新疆≥0 ℃初日总体呈显著提早趋势，≥0 ℃终日呈极显著推迟趋势，≥0 ℃的持续日数和积温分别以2.58 d·（10a） -1 和66.26 ℃·d·（10a） -1 的倾向率呈极显著的增多趋势，并且分别于1997年或1994年发生了突变。但突变后较突变前各要素的变化量具有明显的区域性差异，总体来说，≥0 ℃初日提前幅度的空间分布呈南疆大，北疆小的格局。≥0 ℃终日的推迟幅度呈北疆大，南疆小；山区大，平原和盆地小的特点，≥0 ℃持续日数的延长幅度表现为山区大，平原和盆地小的格局，≥0 ℃积温的增加幅度呈平原和盆地多，山区少的空间分布格局。

2018

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2011

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... 当前基于有效积温的研究仅限于小区域^[19,20,21],在全球变暖背景下对全国喜凉作物、喜温作物有效积温的变化情况与分布特征未有学者进行研究 ...

2017

0.0

... 当前基于有效积温的研究仅限于小区域^[19,20,21],在全球变暖背景下对全国喜凉作物、喜温作物有效积温的变化情况与分布特征未有学者进行研究 ...

2017

0.0

... 当前基于有效积温的研究仅限于小区域^[19,20,21],在全球变暖背景下对全国喜凉作物、喜温作物有效积温的变化情况与分布特征未有学者进行研究 ...

1991

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... 考虑农作物生命活动必须在一定温度范围内才能进行,5 ℃是喜凉作物开始生长的下限温度,10 ℃是喜温作物开始播种与生长的下限温度^[22],因此选用5 ℃、10 ℃作为下限温度分别对全国喜凉、喜温作物有效积温研究 ...

1999

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... 使用5日滑动平均^[23]对数据处理,计算#cod#x02265 ...

... 累积距平是一种成熟的、通过观察曲线变化判断趋势的方法^[23] ...

... MK检验^[24,25]是一种成熟的趋势/突变检验方法,具体展开见参考文献[23] ...

1945

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... MK检验^[24,25]是一种成熟的趋势/突变检验方法,具体展开见参考文献[23] ...

1975

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... MK检验^[24,25]是一种成熟的趋势/突变检验方法,具体展开见参考文献[23] ...

1983

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2015

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... 气候变暖对全国不同地区的有效积温产生不同影响^[27],华南、西南地区及长江中下游平原水稻界线向北向西移动,界线通过区域由原本的两年三熟、一年两熟转变为一年两熟、两年五熟的种植制度^[28],这与#cod#x02265 ...

2010

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赵锦, 杨晓光, 刘志娟, 等. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅱ: 南方地区气候要素变化特征及对种植制度界限可能影响. 中国农业科学, 2010, 43(9): 1860-1867.

[ZHAO

, YANG X

, LIU Z

, et al. The possible effect of global climate changes on cropping systems boundary in China Ⅱ: The characteristics of climatic variables and the possible effect on northern limits of cropping systems in South China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2010, 43(9): 1860-1867. ]

【Objective】 Under the background of climate change, the changes of cropping boundary and its effect on yield in South China were studied. 【Method】 Based on the historical weather data of 281 stations in 15 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in south China, the trends of ≥0℃ accumulated temperature and annual precipitations were analyzed briefly. The changes of grade 0 areas under climate change were studied according to the thermal indicators of heat. Furthermore, the changes of grade 1 areas were analyzed combining with the precipitation indicators. The changes of yield were studied based on the data of yield during 2000-2007. 【Result】 The trends of ≥0℃ accumulated temperature increased and the mean annual value was 60.05 ℃ &# 8226;d/10a; The trends of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature increased. The mean annual trends value of annual precipitations was 1.93 mm/10a, and the spatial differences were large. Compared with the situation before 1980, there was no significant change in the boundary of one-crop per year in South China; however, the change of boundary between two-crops and three-crops per year was marked, which moved with about 2′ to west and 20′ to north. The area of three-crops per year was enlarging, while the areas of two-crops and one-crop per year were reducing. The change of grade 1 area from 1980 was also significant. The south boundary area of two-crops in irrigated land and two/one-crop in dry land in Huanghuaihai area (part of South China) moved to north. Area of wheat-rice in Jianghuai plain or hill moved to north and enlarged. The north boundary of area of two/three-crops in paddy/dry land in Sichuan basin moved to south in the northeast part of Sichuan Province. The west and southeast boundary of area of two-crops in paddy field and two/one-crop in dry land in Southwest plateau or mountain moved to west, while there was no significant change on the area. The north boundary of area of two/three-crops in paddy field in middle-lower Yangtze plain or hill moved to north as well as the west boundary moved to west, and the area enlarged. The north boundary of area of later two/three-crops and thermal three-crops in South China moved to north and the area enlarged. The changes of cropping systems were benefit for increasing the yield in the most areas. 【Conclusion】The effect of climate change on the cropping system was so great that the boundary of multiple cropping moved to north and west, and the area enlarged. That was benefit for increasing the yield generally.

（中国农业大学资源与环境学院）

【目的】研究气候变化背景下,中国南方地区种植制度一级区种植界限的变化特征及其对单位面积周年产量的可能影响。【方法】基于中国南方15个省（市、自治区）281个站点自建站至2007年的地面气象观测资料,笔者以1981年为时间节点,把20世纪50年代至今分为两个时间段,分析和比较后一时段≥0℃积温和年降水量的变化趋势,根据热量指标分析了气候变化背景下南方地区种植制度零级带的变化,综合考虑热量和降水两个指标研究了种植制度一级区界限的变化,并利用2000-2007年各省粮食产量分析了种植制度界限变化敏感区域粮食产量变化情况。【结果】（1）南方地区≥0℃积温整体呈增加趋势,平均气候倾向率为60.1℃ &# 8226;d/10a,≥10℃积温整体呈增加趋势,年降水量平均气候倾向率为1.9 mm/10a,空间差异大。（2）与1980年以前相比,南方一年一熟与一年二熟区的分界限无明显变化;一年二熟区和一年三熟区的界限变化较为明显,平均向西推进约0.2个经度,向北移动约0.20个纬度;研究区域一年三熟区面积扩大,一年二熟区面积有所缩小,一年一熟区也稍有缩小。与1980年前相比,种植制度一级区界限变化较大：黄淮海地区水浇地二熟与旱地二熟一熟区的南界向北移动;江淮平原丘陵麦稻二熟区整体向北推移,且总面积扩大;四川盆地水旱二熟三熟区北界在四川东北部向南移;西南高原山地水田二熟旱地二熟一熟区西界向西推移,东南界向西推进,总区域面积变化不大;长江中下游平原丘陵水田三熟二熟区,北界平均向北移动,西界也平均向西推进,总区域扩大;华南晚三熟二熟与热三熟区,其北界平均向北移动,区域扩大。（3）种植制度的改变有利于大部地区单位面积周年作物产量的提高。【结论】气候变化对南方地区种植制度界限有较大影响,造成多熟种植界限的向北、向西推进,多熟种植区域扩大,总体上有利于单位面积周年作物产量的增加。

2010

0.0

李克南, 杨晓光, 刘志娟, 等. 全球气候变化对中国种植制度可能影响分析Ⅲ: 中国北方地区气候资源变化特征及其对种植制度界限的可能影响. 中国农业科学, 2010, 43(10): 2088-2097.

[LI K

, YANG X

, LIU Z

, et al. Analysis of the potential influence of global climate change on cropping systems in China Ⅲ: The change characteristics of climatic resources in Northern China and its potential influence on cropping systems. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2010, 43(10): 2088-2097. ]

【Objective】 Under the background of global climate change, the obvious changes that had taken place in heat and precipitation resources in northern China were studied. Furthermore, the possible effects of climate warming on the agro-climatic resources and cropping systems in northern China were analyzed. 【Method】 Based on 308 meteorological observations stations from 14 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in northern China, the inter-decadal and spatial variation trends of heat and precipitation resource were analyzed. According to the climatic regionalization indicators of cropping systems in China, the spatial displacement of planting north boundary during 1950s—1980 and 1981—2007 was analyzed. The major method used was choosing typical stations in the sensitive zone of cultivation northern boundary, and crop potential productivity step correction method to calculate the potential yield change due to cropping pattern shift between one crop (spring maize, spring wheat, winter wheat) a year and two crops (winter-summer maize) a year. 【Result】 Temperatures in northern China had generally increased, ≥0℃ accumulated temperature zone showed a north shift and a west spread, the cumulative effects of temperature rising were significant, the climatic tendency of cumulative temperature was 65.5 ℃ &# 8226;d/10a. Distribution of annual precipitation had presented a regional difference and reduced from southeast to northwest. Along to this, in the whole region it also showed a decreasing trend, the climatic tendency of precipitation varied from -90.0 mm/10a to 23.0 mm/10a, with an average level of -10.6 mm/10a. Under the combined effect of heat and precipitation, in the research area, the area of one-crop of cool-warm plants in semi-arid medium plateau in north (Ⅱ) declined, in area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-arid low plateau in northeast and northwest (Ⅲ) increased in northeast China, and declined in North China and northwest China. The area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly in northeast (Ⅳ) increased and the north boundary moved north in area of two-crops in irrigated land and two/one-crop in dry land in Huanghuaihai region (Ⅵ). Generally speaking, the northeast area boundary had a remarkable change, but was gradual and insignificant in southwest. In the sensitive areas which showed planting system’s north boundary changes, crop potential productivity increased significantly, from the area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly areas in northeast (Ⅳ) to the area of two-crops a year, the yield increased by 1 979 kg &# 8226;hm-2, which means that the annual production per unit area increased by 15.3%; from the area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-arid low plateau in northeast and northwest (Ⅲ) to the area of two-crops a year, the yield increased by 7 912 kg &# 8226;hm-2, which means that the annual production per unit area increased by 155.2%; in the area of one-crop of warm-cool plants in semi-arid low plateau in northeast and northwest (Ⅲ) where the spring wheat is changed to spring maize, the yield increased by 2 873 kg &# 8226;hm-2, which means that the annual production per unit area increased by 51.7%. 【Conclusion】 In the context of global climate change, the≥0℃ accumulated temperature increased while the precipitation showed a decreasing trend in the research region. All of these caused a northwest movement of the north boundary line in sensitive zones of planting boundaries and the cropping system changes resulted in the increase of annual production per unit area.

(中国农业大学资源与环境学院)

【目的】在全球气候变化背景下,分析中国北方地区的热量和降水资源变化特征,以及北方地区农业气候资源和种植制度界限变动情况。【方法】基于中国北方地区14个省(市、自治区)308个气象台站地面观测资料,综合分析热量和降水资源的年际和空间变化趋势。结合中国种植制度气候区划指标,分析从1950s—1980年和1981—2007年种植北界的空间位移情况。在种植制度北界变化敏感地带选择典型站点,运用作物生产潜力逐级订正法计算由一年一熟春玉米、春小麦及冬小麦种植模式改变为一年两熟冬小麦-夏玉米种植模式导致的作物生产潜力变化。【结果】(1)中国北方地区气温普遍升高,≥0℃积温带北移西扩,温度上升的累积效应十分明显,≥0℃积温为每10年升高65.5℃。年降水量呈带状分布,由东南向西北减少,全区年降水量呈减小的趋势,年降水量每10年变化-90—23 mm,平均为每10年减少10.6 mm。(2)在热量和降水共同影响下,北部中高原半干旱凉温作物一熟区(Ⅱ)面积减少,东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区(Ⅲ)在东北地区面积增加,而在西北和华北地区面积减少,东北平原丘陵半湿润温凉作物一熟区(Ⅳ)面积增加,黄淮海水浇地二熟旱地二熟一熟区(Ⅵ)向北移动,总体而言北方地区东北部种植界限空间位移显著,而西南部变化不明显。(3)在种植制度北界变动的敏感地带,作物生产潜力明显改变：在东北平原丘陵半湿润温凉作物一熟区变化为一年二熟区,作物生产潜力增加1 979 kg &# 8226;hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加15.3%;在东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区改变为一年二熟区,作物生产潜力增加7 912 kg &# 8226;hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加155.2%;在东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区春小麦种植改变为春玉米,作物生产潜力增加2 873 kg &# 8226;hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加51.7%。【结论】全球气候变化背景下,研究区域内≥0℃积温增加,年降水量呈减少的趋势,种植界限敏感区域种植北界明显北移西扩,种植界限变化敏感区域内因种植模式改变带来单位土地面积周年作物产量增加。

... 20世纪80年代后期华北平原一年一熟、两年三熟区的南界线向北移动,东北平原喜凉作物一年一熟中部分区域变为一年两熟^[29],1990#cod#x02014 ...

2017

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2016

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2012

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王鹤龄, 王润元, 张疆, 等. 甘肃省作物布局演变及其对区域气候变暖的响应. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(3): 413-421.

[WANG H

, WANG R

, ZHANG

, et al. Main crops structural change and its climate background in Gansu province during the past two decades. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(3): 413-421. ]

Global warming during the 20th century, especially the impacts of the global warming in the past two decades has been paid much attention worldwide. A case study is made in this paper on the relationship between change of main crops structure and global warming in Gansu Province of Northwest China based on the statistical data of agriculture and ground based climate data during 1985 to 2005. The results showed that in the past 20 years, especially in 1990s, in Hexi Corridor corn and cotton sown area expanded obviously, the proportion of cotton and corn sown area increased significanly, but the proportion of the spring wheat dropped rapidly and retreat extensively to the Qilian shallow mountain region, corn and cotton gradually replaced the wheat in Hexi Corridor and became the main crops. In the central region, the sown area of spring wheat reduced year by year, and winter wheat planting area expanded, the proportion of maize increased year by year also, potato planting scale increased gradually; in the southeastern region, winter wheat and spring wheat planting area decreased year after year, but corn, winter oilseed rape and other cash crops increased year by year. Under global warming, it is proved that temperature change has influenced human society to a certain extent and people began to adapt to the new environment by transferring the land use patterns.

1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change, CMA, Lanzhou 730020,China; 2. Lanzhou Regional Climatic Center, Lanzhou 730020, China; 3. Agrometeorological Experimental Station of Tianshui, Tianshui 741020, China

根据甘肃省1985—2005年的气候资料和同时期主要作物播种面积等统计资料,利用快速聚类分析方法分析了气候变暖背景下甘肃省主要作物的种植格局和种植界限演变情况。结果表明:过去20 a里特别是进入20世纪90年代,在河西地区,玉米和棉花播种范围扩张趋势明显,种植面积比重显著增加,春小麦种植面积比重快速降低,种植范围大幅向祁连山浅山区退缩,种植结构的这种调整使玉米和棉花逐渐取代小麦成为河西主要作物,并最终导致该区主要作物种植格局从以小麦为主转变为以玉米和棉花为主;在中部地区,春小麦面积逐年缩小,冬小麦和杂粮种植扩张,玉米的种植比例逐年上升,马铃薯种植逐渐形成规模,形成了以小麦和玉米为主的种植格局;在东南部地区,春小麦和冬小麦面积逐年缩小,玉米、冬油菜和其他喜温的经济作物种植比例逐年上升。相关分析表明,上述作物种植格局的变化与气候变暖带来的积温增加及积温带北移东扩密切相关。

2019

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赵彦茜, 肖登攀, 柏会子, 等. 中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(2): 224-235.

[ZHAO Y

, XIAO D

, BAI H

, et al. Research progress on the response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change in China. Progress in Geography, 2019, 38(2): 224-235. ]

Climate change with warming as the main characteristic has important influence on crop phenology. Rising temperature usually leads to faster crop growth and shortened growth period that causes loss of crop yield, which is not conducive to agricultural development. Meanwhile, crop phenological changes can reflect climate change directly or indirectly, which has important significance for detecting climate change. Research on crop phenology is crucial for preventing agricultural meteorological disasters, the progress of agricultural production management, and the safety of agricultural production. With the continuous increase of global surface temperature, research on crop phenology has attracted increasingly more attention of scientists. Based on the key research methods of crop phenology, this article summarizes the studies on the change of crop growth period and the main driving factors of change of major crops, including wheat, corn, rice, cotton, and soybean, in recent decades in China. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) Statistical analysis methods have been most widely used and several other methods were combined with statistical analysis methods in application. Model simulation method has also been widely used in phenological research, and such method is easy to operate. Remote sensing inversion has a high requirement on the characteristics of the growth period, and the focus is generally on green-up period of spring crops. 2) Overall, the whole growth period of wheat is mainly shortened, and the main trend of whole growth period of maize and rice is prolonged. 3) The driving factors of main crop phenological change is climate change and agricultural management. Climate change is the dominant driving factor, which decides crop phenological change, and adjusting agricultural management measures can partly offset the negative impact of climate change on crop growth period. The study of response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change can provide an important theoretical basis for agricultural production to adapt to climate change.

1. Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences, Hebei Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information Application, Shijiazhuang 050011, China 2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。

... 赵彦茜等^[33]和金涛^[34]研究表明,全国小麦整体上全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主 ...

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... 赵彦茜等^[33]和金涛^[34]研究表明,全国小麦整体上全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主 ...