全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温关系的统计分析

邓祥征, 蒋思坚, 刘冰, 王泽昊, 邵卿

Statistical analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and temperature rise with the spatially heterogenous distribution of carbon dioxide concentration

DENG Xiang-zheng, JIANG Si-jian, LIU Bing, WANG Ze-hao, SHAO Qing

表2 联立方程组模型计量结果

Table 2 Estimation results of simultaneous equations model

变量		模型组一：不考虑CO₂浓度			模型组二：考虑CO₂浓度
变量		OLS	2SLS	3SLS	GSLS	GS2SLS	GS3SLS
dT	lnE	0.0182^***	0.191^***	0.192^***	0.0158^***	0.186^***	0.187^***
		(0.0030)	(0.0065)	(0.0065)	(0.0030)	(0.0065)	(0.0065)
	lnCO₂				16.95^***	15.59^***	15.80^***
					(1.082)	(1.092)	(1.092)
	WlnCO₂				0.372^***	0.268^***	0.255^***
					(0.0401)	(0.0406)	(0.0406)
	lnrain	-0.0075	0.134^***	0.0238^*	-0.0058	0.130^***	0.0242^*
		(0.0135)	(0.0143)	(0.0142)	(0.0135)	(0.0143)	(0.0142)
	lnrain²	-0.0003	0.0045^***	0.0025^***	0.0001	0.0041^***	0.0027^***
		(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)
	Longitude	0.0011^***	-0.0005^*	-0.0004	0.001^***	-0.0002^**	-0.0004
		(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)
	Latitude	0.0032^***	0.0115^***	0.0136^***	-0.0019^**	0.0076^***	0.0097^***
		(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0008)	(0.0009)	(0.0009)
	DEM	-0.0628^***	-0.0185	-0.0107	-0.0579^**	-0.0151	-0.0133
		(0.0243)	(0.0245)	(0.0245)	(0.0243)	(0.0245)	(0.0245)
	常数项	0.260^***	0.582^***	-0.166^**	-102.6^***	-93.69^***	-95.59^***
		(0.0733)	(0.0747)	(0.0741)	(6.435)	(6.494)	(6.494)
	Wald chi²	14.0^***	153.4^***	1076.4^***	53.7^***	152.7^***	1369.9^***
	R²	0.040	0.039	0.039	0.021	0.021	0.020
lnE	lnT		96.72^***	97.33^***		96.27^***	96.85^***
			(0.495)	(0.494)		(0.496)	(0.494)
	lnCO₂					3.271^***	3.181^***
						(0.738)	(0.738)
	WlnCO₂					0.523^***	0.522^***
						(0.0293)	(0.0293)
	lnPOP		0.0599^***	0.0588^***		0.0603^***	0.0592^***
			(0.0049)	(0.0048)		(0.00486)	(0.00481)
	lnPOP²		0.0033^***	0.0033^***		0.00334^***	0.00328^***
			(0.0003)	(0.0003)		(0.0003)	(0.0003)
变量		模型组一：不考虑CO₂浓度			模型组二：考虑CO₂浓度
变量		OLS	2SLS	3SLS	GSLS	GS2SLS	GS3SLS
lnE	lnpGDP		0.858^***	0.881^***		0.757^***	0.773^***
			(0.0146)	(0.0145)		(0.0156)	(0.0155)
	lnpGDP²		0.0280^***	0.0292^***		0.0237^***	0.0246^***
			(0.0007)	(0.0007)		(0.0007)	(0.0007)
	Longitude		0.0103^***	0.0104^***		0.010^***	0.010^***
			(0.0002)	(0.0002)		(0.0002)	(0.0002)
	Latitude		0.0559^***	0.0563^***		0.0508^***	0.0513^***
			(0.0007)	(0.0007)		(0.0008)	(0.0008)
	DEM		0.535^***	0.554^***		0.517^***	0.534^***
			(0.0186)	(0.0185)		(0.0186)	(0.0185)
	常数项		-771.4^***	-776.2^***		-790.0^***	-794.2^***
			(3.960)	(3.949)		(5.763)	(5.757)
	Wald chi²		9553.6^***	76419.8^***		7689.6^***	76892.8^***
	R²		0.275	0.275		0.276	0.276
	样本量/个	202332	202332	202332	202332	202332	202332