全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温关系的统计分析
|
邓祥征, 蒋思坚, 刘冰, 王泽昊, 邵卿
|
Statistical analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and temperature rise with the spatially heterogenous distribution of carbon dioxide concentration
|
DENG Xiang-zheng, JIANG Si-jian, LIU Bing, WANG Ze-hao, SHAO Qing
|
|
表2 联立方程组模型计量结果
|
Table 2 Estimation results of simultaneous equations model
|
|
变量 | 模型组一:不考虑CO2浓度 | | 模型组二:考虑CO2浓度 | OLS | 2SLS | 3SLS | GSLS | GS2SLS | GS3SLS | dT | lnE | 0.0182*** | 0.191*** | 0.192*** | | 0.0158*** | 0.186*** | 0.187*** | | (0.0030) | (0.0065) | (0.0065) | (0.0030) | (0.0065) | (0.0065) | lnCO2 | | | | 16.95*** | 15.59*** | 15.80*** | | | | | (1.082) | (1.092) | (1.092) | WlnCO2 | | | | 0.372*** | 0.268*** | 0.255*** | | | | | (0.0401) | (0.0406) | (0.0406) | lnrain | -0.0075 | 0.134*** | 0.0238* | -0.0058 | 0.130*** | 0.0242* | | (0.0135) | (0.0143) | (0.0142) | (0.0135) | (0.0143) | (0.0142) | lnrain2 | -0.0003 | 0.0045*** | 0.0025*** | 0.0001 | 0.0041*** | 0.0027*** | | (0.0010) | (0.0010) | (0.0010) | (0.0010) | (0.0010) | (0.0010) | Longitude | 0.0011*** | -0.0005* | -0.0004 | 0.001*** | -0.0002** | -0.0004 | | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | Latitude | 0.0032*** | 0.0115*** | 0.0136*** | -0.0019** | 0.0076*** | 0.0097*** | | (0.0007) | (0.0007) | (0.0007) | (0.0008) | (0.0009) | (0.0009) | DEM | -0.0628*** | -0.0185 | -0.0107 | -0.0579** | -0.0151 | -0.0133 | | (0.0243) | (0.0245) | (0.0245) | (0.0243) | (0.0245) | (0.0245) | 常数项 | 0.260*** | 0.582*** | -0.166** | -102.6*** | -93.69*** | -95.59*** | | (0.0733) | (0.0747) | (0.0741) | (6.435) | (6.494) | (6.494) | Wald chi2 | 14.0*** | 153.4*** | 1076.4*** | 53.7*** | 152.7*** | 1369.9*** | R2 | 0.040 | 0.039 | 0.039 | 0.021 | 0.021 | 0.020 | lnE
| lnT | | 96.72*** | 97.33*** | | | 96.27*** | 96.85*** | | | (0.495) | (0.494) | | (0.496) | (0.494) | lnCO2 | | | | | 3.271*** | 3.181*** | | | | | | (0.738) | (0.738) | WlnCO2 | | | | | 0.523*** | 0.522*** | | | | | | (0.0293) | (0.0293) | lnPOP | | 0.0599*** | 0.0588*** | | 0.0603*** | 0.0592*** | | | (0.0049) | (0.0048) | | (0.00486) | (0.00481) | lnPOP2 | | 0.0033*** | 0.0033*** | | 0.00334*** | 0.00328*** | | | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | 变量 | 模型组一:不考虑CO2浓度 | | 模型组二:考虑CO2浓度 | OLS | 2SLS | 3SLS | GSLS | GS2SLS | GS3SLS | lnE | lnpGDP | | 0.858*** | 0.881*** | | | 0.757*** | 0.773*** | | | (0.0146) | (0.0145) | | (0.0156) | (0.0155) | lnpGDP2 | | 0.0280*** | 0.0292*** | | 0.0237*** | 0.0246*** | | | (0.0007) | (0.0007) | | (0.0007) | (0.0007) | Longitude | | 0.0103*** | 0.0104*** | | 0.010*** | 0.010*** | | | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | | (0.0002) | (0.0002) | Latitude | | 0.0559*** | 0.0563*** | | 0.0508*** | 0.0513*** | | | (0.0007) | (0.0007) | | (0.0008) | (0.0008) | DEM | | 0.535*** | 0.554*** | | 0.517*** | 0.534*** | | | (0.0186) | (0.0185) | | (0.0186) | (0.0185) | 常数项 | | -771.4*** | -776.2*** | | -790.0*** | -794.2*** | | | (3.960) | (3.949) | | (5.763) | (5.757) | Wald chi2 | | 9553.6*** | 76419.8*** | | 7689.6*** | 76892.8*** | R2 | | 0.275 | 0.275 | | 0.276 | 0.276 | 样本量/个 | 202332 | 202332 | 202332 | 202332 | 202332 | 202332 |
|
|
|