关键词: 人口, 承载力, 水资源, 限制性, 限制度

Abstract:

As an important theme of regional sustainable development, the relationship between population distribution and resources, environment, and socio- economic development has attracted much attention for a long time. The resources restriction on population distribution becomes more significant for population growth in China, especially the water resources. The population was 0.54 billion in 1949, and per capita water resource was about 5000 m³ in China at that time. Then, with the growing of population from 0.5 billion to 0.7 billion, till 1 billion, China's per capita water resource had dropped to 4000 m³ and 2800 m³ accordingly. When population reached 1.3 billion in 2005, per capita water resource dropped to about 2151 m³, till 2099 m³ in 2010, which means the restriction of water resource to socio-economic development had kept strengthening. A basic objective of this study is to investigate the water resources restriction and intensity on population distribution at different levels in China. This paper established a series of models for evaluating water resources restriction to population distribution. The spatio-temporal features of water resources restriction to population distribution in China were assessed comprehensively from 2000 to 2010 at three levels: national, provincial and county. The intensity, spatial pattern and changing law of water resources restriction to population pattern were also revealed quantitatively. The results showed that: 1) at the national level, the carrying capacity of water resources was dominated by water surplus in China during 1949- 2010, and the relationship between population and water resources has been strained. The restriction of water resources on population distribution in China increased during 2000-2010, up to 35.25 from 30.66, meaning that the water resources restriction to population distribution enhanced. 2) At the provincial level, the carrying capacity of water resources was also led by water surplus in China from 2000 to 2010 and the water resources restriction to population distribution was at low level in most provinces. To be specified, the restriction intensity of water resources for overall population distribution showed an upward trend at the provincial level during 2000-2010. 3) At the county level, the main feature of the carrying capacity of water resources in China was water surplus. From the aspect of the number of the counties, about 3/4 of the counties in China were not influenced by water resources restriction in 2000 and 2010. The restriction intensity of water resources restriction on population distribution was overall low at the county level and showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2010. 4) The basic spatial pattern of water resources restriction to population distribution showed that the northern China was higher than the southern and the Yellow River Basin was higher than the Yangtze River Basin.

Key words: population, restriction intensity, water resources, carrying capacity, restriction